LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强，丙烯：成本端地缘扰动，基本面维持偏紧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG has strong short - term geopolitical disturbances, and propylene has geopolitical disturbances at the cost end with a tight fundamental situation [1] - The trend strength of LPG and propylene is 2, indicating a relatively strong outlook [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For LPG futures: The 2603 PG contract closed at 4,051 yesterday with a - 4.75% daily decline, and the night - session closed at 4,070 with a 0.47% increase. The 2604 contract closed at 4,519 with a - 1.03% daily decline, and the night - session closed at 4,542 with a 0.51% increase. The 2605 contract closed at 4,452 with a - 0.89% daily decline, and the night - session closed at 4,469 with a 0.38% increase [1] - For propylene futures: The 2603 PL contract closed at 6,140 with a - 0.84% daily decline, and the night - session closed at 6,159 with a 0.31% increase. The 2604 PL contract closed at 6,254 with a - 0.92% daily decline, and the night - session closed at 6,258 with a 0.06% increase. The 2605 PL contract closed at 6,202 with a - 1.74% daily decline, and the night - session closed at 6,230 with a 0.45% increase [1] 3.1.2 Spot Market - For LPG: Shandong civil LPG was priced at 4,500 with a 20 increase, and the main basis was - 19 with a 67 increase. East China imported LPG was priced at 5,001 with no change, and the main basis was 582 with a 47 increase [1] - For propylene: Shandong propylene was priced at 6,470 with a - 55 decrease, and the main basis was 268 with a 55 increase. East China propylene was priced at 6,550 with no change, and the main basis was 348 with a 110 increase [1] 3.1.3 Industry Chain开工 - The PDH operating rate was 63.23, a - 1.61 decrease from last week. The alkylation operating rate was 37.72 with no change, and the MTBE operating rate was 67.22 with no change [1] 3.1.4 LPG Shipment Volume - From the US: The global shipment volume was 4.8 tons yesterday, a - 14.2 decrease from the day before. The Asian shipment volume was 0.0 tons, a - 11.2 decrease from the day before [1] - From the Middle East: The global shipment volume was 7.9 tons yesterday, a - 10.0 decrease from the day before. The Asian shipment volume was 7.9 tons, a - 10.0 decrease from the day before [1] 3.2 Market News - Saudi Aramco's March 2026 CP: Propane was 545 dollars/ton, unchanged from last month; butane was 540 dollars/ton, unchanged from last month. The landed US - dollar cost of propane was 640 dollars/ton, and that of butane was 635 dollars/ton. The RMB landed cost of propane was about 4,876 yuan/ton, and that of butane was about 4,838 yuan/ton [7] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, involving companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [8][9] - There are also domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, including plants in Shandong and the western region [9]