中东战争爆发，能化溢价增强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In late February 2026, a full - scale military conflict between the US and Iran broke out. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen blocked the Bab el - Mandeb Strait. This led to a double impact of physical energy supply interruption and global shipping system paralysis. The conflict may expand the supply gap of crude oil, causing oil prices to rise beyond expectations. High oil prices will push up global inflation, causing central banks to tighten monetary policies and suppressing demand for crude oil and energy - chemical products. In the short term, geopolitical risks will keep the prices of crude oil and high - elasticity energy - chemical products high. In the medium and long term, the market will gradually return to the supply - demand fundamentals, but prices are unlikely to return to pre - conflict lows [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Introduction: US - Iran War and Closure of the Strait of Hormuz - In late February 2026, the US - Iran military conflict fully erupted. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi armed forces blocked the Bab el - Mandeb Strait. These two key global energy transportation channels were interrupted, causing a double impact on energy supply and the shipping system. The report analyzes the comprehensive impact of this extreme geopolitical event on crude oil and energy - chemical commodities from five dimensions [9]. 2. Supply Shortage and Increased Premiums of Domestic and Foreign Crude Oil - With the rapid increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the closure of the two straits, the energy supply shortage led to a sharp rise in the prices of domestic crude oil futures and downstream energy - chemical commodity futures on Monday. The domestic crude oil 2605 contract opened at the daily limit, and most other energy - chemical commodity futures also had large increases [10]. 3. Geopolitical Conflict Background and Strategic Status of the Two Straits - US - Iran Conflict and Strait Blockade Process: The US - Iran conflict originated from the breakdown of nuclear negotiations. On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched large - scale air strikes on Iran's core military and political targets. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a full - scale ban on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi armed forces blocked the Bab el - Mandeb Strait. The core contradictions of the conflict focus on regional dominance, nuclear issues, and energy interests [22]. - Strait of Hormuz: It is the only maritime passage for crude oil exports from Persian Gulf oil - producing countries, with a daily crude oil transportation volume of 21 million barrels, accounting for 30% of global seaborne crude oil trade and 25% of global crude oil consumption. It is also crucial for Asian economies, such as China, Japan, and South Korea [23]. - Bab el - Mandeb Strait: It is a key node in the Mediterranean - Red Sea - Indian Ocean route, handling 12% of global seaborne trade volume. Its blockade forces the adjustment of the Asia - Europe route, increasing shipping costs and causing a re - allocation of global shipping capacity. It forms a "double - lock effect" with the Strait of Hormuz, paralyzing the global energy transportation network [24]. 4. Core Impact on the Crude Oil Market: Triple Impact on Supply, Price, and Shipping - Supply Side: The blockade of the two straits causes a substantial supply interruption in the global crude oil market. The daily supply gap is about 18 - 20 million barrels, accounting for about 20% of global crude oil demand. Land - based pipeline alternatives are limited, and OPEC +'s idle capacity cannot be quickly released to alleviate the supply shortage [27][28]. - Price Side: The impact on crude oil prices is a triple resonance of geopolitical risk premium, supply gap, and market panic. In different scenarios, oil prices show significant differences. In the benchmark scenario, Brent crude may reach $120 - 150 per barrel; in the extreme scenario, it may exceed $150 per barrel; in the缓和 scenario, it may fall to $80 - 100 per barrel but not return to pre - conflict lows [30]. - Shipping Side: The blockade leads to a sharp increase in freight rates and insurance costs, and a re - configuration of shipping capacity. The daily rent of VLCCs has increased by over 130%, and the war - risk insurance rate has soared by 300% - 500%. The global shipping capacity is re - allocated, affecting non - energy commodity transportation [32]. 5. Energy - Chemical Commodity Industry Chain Conduction: Cost - Driven with Significant Variety Differentiation - High - Elasticity Varieties (Fuel Oil, Asphalt): The cost of crude oil accounts for over 75% of their production costs. Fuel oil prices will rise sharply due to cost resonance and supply shocks, and asphalt will follow crude oil prices with a slightly lower increase [34][35]. - Medium - Elasticity Varieties (Methanol, Polyolefins, PX/PTA): The crude oil cost accounts for 50% - 75%. They are affected by cost conduction and supply shortages. Methanol prices are expected to rise by 20% - 30%, polyolefins will follow crude oil prices, PX will have a large increase, and PTA's increase will be limited [36][37]. - Low - Elasticity Varieties (Pure Benzene, Styrene, Ethylene Glycol): The crude oil cost accounts for less than 50%, and they have diversified raw material paths. Their prices will follow crude oil with limited increases [38][39]. 6. Regional Market Impact: Specificity and Response of the Chinese Energy - Chemical Market - Crude Oil Import: China's diversified import sources and strategic oil reserves can alleviate the impact of supply shortages to some extent [40]. - Energy - Chemical Production: China's coal - based energy - chemical products have cost advantages, reducing the industry's dependence on crude oil and suppressing excessive price increases [40]. - Market Trend: The domestic energy - chemical futures market shows that the domestic market is stronger than the international market, and near - term contracts have higher increases than far - term contracts [41]. 7. Conclusion - The US - Iran conflict may further expand the supply gap of crude oil, causing oil prices to rise beyond expectations. High oil prices will suppress demand, and long - term strait blockades may lead to industrial chain disruptions. In the short term, geopolitical risks will keep prices high, and in the medium and long term, prices will gradually return to the supply - demand fundamentals but not reach pre - conflict lows [42].