白糖：中东战火再起，涨价情绪火上浇油

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the sugar market from multiple aspects including fundamentals, macro and industry news, and international and domestic market conditions, with a trend strength of 1 for sugar, indicating a neutral - slightly positive view [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The current price of raw sugar is 13.92 cents per pound, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.03; the mainstream spot price is 5,340 yuan per ton, with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5,324 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 39. The 59 spread is - 11 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 5; the 91 spread is - 129 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 7; the mainstream spot basis is 16 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 39 [1] Macro and Industry News - As of January 31, the sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season in India increased by 17% year - on - year. India approved an additional 500,000 tons of exports, on top of the previously approved 1.5 million tons. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December (+190,000 tons). As of the end of January, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 4.03 million tons (-790,000 tons), and the sugar production rate was 12.05%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.14 percentage points. Attention should be paid to China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder and the sales progress in production areas [1] Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption will be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. As of the end of September in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons (+870,000 tons), with a cumulative sugar sales rate of 93.9% (a decrease of 2.6 percentage points). As of the end of December in the 25/26 sugar - making season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons (+310,000 tons) [2] International Market - ISO predicts that the global sugar supply will have a surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar - making season (previously a shortage of 230,000 tons), and there was a shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season. As of February 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar - making season decreased by 2.16 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 40.24 million tons (+340,000 tons), and the cumulative MIX was 50.74%, a year - on - year increase of 2.60 percentage points. As of January 31, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 19.31 million tons (+2.78 million tons). As of February 15, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 6.84 million tons (-350,000 tons) [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of sugar is 1, with the value range of [-2, 2] for integers, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]