2026年03月02日：期货市场交易指引-20260302

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][6] - Black Building Materials: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and a strategy of shorting May and going long September for glass [1][8][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Short - term range trading for copper, suggesting more observation for aluminum, moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel, range trading for tin, and both gold and silver expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, with lithium carbonate in a range oscillation [1][12][15] - Energy and Chemicals: Range trading for PVC, low - level oscillation for caustic soda, shorting on rallies for soda ash, going long on dips but not chasing highs for styrene and rubber, range trading for urea and methanol, and a strong - side oscillation for polyolefins [1][19][21] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Oscillating with a strong bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples, and dates oscillating [1][29][30][32] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Caution against shorting the May contract of live pigs, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds; if the culling of laying hens does not accelerate, shorting on rebounds for near - month egg contracts; range trading for corn due to high short - term basis; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; and a strategy of going long on dips for soybean and palm oils as oils follow international crude oil in a strong - side oscillation [1][33][34][37] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts such as the Iran situation and trade policy uncertainties are impacting the financial and commodity markets, affecting the supply and demand and price trends of various commodities [6][13] - The supply and demand fundamentals of different industries are in a state of change, with some industries facing supply - side challenges, while others are affected by seasonal and policy factors [8][19][25] - The prices of most commodities are expected to show different trends, including oscillations, strong - side oscillations, and range trading, and investors should adopt corresponding trading strategies according to different market conditions [1] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Indices: Geopolitical conflicts may put pressure on stock indices in the short term, but they are bullish in the medium to long term, and investors are advised to buy on dips [6] - Government Bonds: With the release of policy signals and the approaching of the Two Sessions, government bonds are expected to oscillate with a strong bias [6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but trading is weak, and short - term trading is recommended [8] - Rebar: The rebar futures price is oscillating. It has a low static valuation and weak driving forces. It is expected to oscillate in the context of low - valuation and weak - driving, and range trading is recommended [8] - Glass: The glass market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term fundamentals are deteriorating, and a strategy of shorting May and going long September is recommended [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Policy uncertainties and supply - demand contradictions coexist. The short - term price is expected to oscillate in the range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and range trading is recommended [12][13][14] - Aluminum: The supply expectation is improving, but the market sentiment for being bullish on non - ferrous metals remains. It is recommended to strengthen observation [15] - Nickel: Affected by the reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, the ore end has strong support, and it is recommended to moderately hold long positions on dips [16][17] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement. It is expected to oscillate with a strong bias, and range trading is recommended [17] - Gold and Silver: Due to geopolitical conflicts and the weakening of the US economic data, the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up, and they are expected to oscillate with a strong bias. It is recommended to build long positions on dips after sufficient price corrections [18] - Lithium Carbonate: Supply disturbances reappear, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate with a strong bias, and range trading is recommended [19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the inventory is high. However, it has a low valuation, and range trading is recommended, focusing on policies and cost disturbances [19][21] - Caustic Soda: The demand support is weak, there is inventory pressure in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level, focusing on supply - side maintenance and downstream replenishment [21] - Soda Ash: The supply is in excess, the inventory pressure is increasing, and it is recommended to short on rallies [28][29] - Styrene: Supported by cost and with low inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, it is expected to oscillate with a strong bias, and it is recommended to go long on dips but not chase highs [22][23] - Rubber: The supply of raw materials is shrinking, and there is a short - term upward expectation. It is recommended to go long on dips but not chase highs [23] - Urea: After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are both increasing. The price is expected to be strong in March and may be under pressure later, and range trading is recommended [24][25] - Methanol: The war in Iran may cause a supply gap, and the price may be pushed up in the short term. The supply and demand are both at a relatively high level, and range trading is recommended [27] - Polyolefins: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and cost support, they are expected to oscillate with a strong bias, focusing on downstream demand and inventory [28] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The new - year global cotton supply and demand situation is changing, and the price is expected to oscillate with a strong bias after the festival [29] - Apples: The apple trading is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate with a strong bias [30][31] - Dates: The acquisition price of Xinjiang gray dates in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the price is expected to oscillate [32] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: In the short term, the pig price is oscillating at a low level, and the May contract is recommended to be shorted on rebounds. In the long term, the price may strengthen, but the increase is limited [33] - Eggs: The egg price has a bottom support, but the supply is sufficient, and if the culling does not accelerate, it is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts [34] - Corn: The short - term price is in a range oscillation, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and range trading is recommended [35][36] - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean meal price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies [37] - Oils: Oils are expected to oscillate with a strong bias following international crude oil, and it is recommended to go long on dips for soybean and palm oils [37][42]