——转债月报20260302：转债审批在加速，今年发行预测怎么看？-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the "Package of Measures to Optimize Refinancing" on February 9, 2026, by the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges may accelerate the issuance of convertible bonds in relevant sectors. Assuming the approval speed returns to the level before 2023, the expected issuance scale of convertible bonds in 2026 is 9.166 billion yuan [1][2][8]. - In March, the volatility of the equity market may increase, and defensive sectors may have short - term trading opportunities. The technology growth sector remains the main focus this year. The convertible bond market is currently at a historical high in terms of valuation, and the trading strategy should focus on capturing structural opportunities in the equity market, with a more cautious and neutral position [3]. - In February, the convertible bond market strengthened with small - cap styles leading, and the overall valuation increased by 2.01 pct. New bond issuance continued to be light, and the pace of new bond issuance plans slowed down [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bond Approval is Accelerating. How to Forecast This Year's Issuance? - The "Package of Measures to Optimize Refinancing" aims to guide capital market resources to gather towards technological innovation and new - quality productivity, which may accelerate the issuance of convertible bonds in relevant sectors. Since the fourth quarter of 2025, a non - seasonal recovery in convertible bond issuance scale has been observed [1][8][9]. - By analyzing the average time taken for each stage of convertible bond issuance, except for the relatively stable time from approval for registration to listing, the time taken for other stages increased significantly in 2024 and 2025 and began to recover significantly in the second half of 2025 [1][9]. - Assuming the approval speed returns to the level before 2023, the probabilities of completing the board proposal, shareholders' meeting approval, exchange acceptance, listing committee approval, and approval for registration within 2026 are 39.5%, 69.7%, 80.4%, 98.3%, and 99.3% respectively. After considering the probability of suspension of implementation, the expected issuance scale of convertible bonds in 2026 is 9.166 billion yuan [2][24][25]. 3.2 Key Convertible Bonds to Focus on in March - From January 30 to February 27, 2026, the convertible bond portfolio rose by 2.81%, outperforming the benchmark index by 3.66 pct. Huachen, Xingqiu, and Huayi in the portfolio had significant increases [30]. - In March, the "Huachuang Convertible Bond" focus portfolio was adjusted to include Xingqiu, Sanxia 2, Yirui, Huachen, Huayi, Yifeng, Bengang, Peiti, Ziyin, Qingnong, Chongyin, and Xingye [32]. 3.3 Strategy Outlook: Valuation Digestion is Underway, Returning to Prudent Neutrality - In March, due to global geopolitical instability and the Two Sessions, the volatility of the equity market may increase. Defensive sectors such as pharmaceutical consumption and transportation and public utilities with low valuations can be appropriately focused on. The technology growth sector, including AI, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robots, remains the main focus this year. With the unexpected recovery of PPI, attention should be paid to the price increases in chemicals, non - ferrous metals, energy, and electronic components [3][37]. - The convertible bond market's valuation is still at a historical high of 39%. The trading strategy for convertible bonds should focus on capturing structural opportunities in the equity market, and the overall position should return to a prudent and neutral level. It is recommended to avoid newly - issued convertible bonds with high valuations and double - high convertible bonds with unclear call expectations [3][42][43]. 3.4 Market Review: Convertible Bonds and Underlying Stocks Continued to be Strong, and Valuation Fluctuated Upward 3.4.1 Market Performance: Broad - based Indexes Generally Rose, and the Cyclical Sector Shined - In February, the convertible bond market strengthened, with small - cap styles leading. As of February 27, the Wind All - A Index rose by 2.34%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.89%. The overall valuation increased by 2.01 pct month - on - month. Small - cap stocks were generally strong, with the CSI 300 rising by 0.09%, the CSI 500 rising by 3.44%, the CSI 1000 rising by 3.71%, and the CSI 2000 rising by 4.80% [49]. - The equity market remained active in February. Before the Spring Festival, there may have been profit - taking and risk - aversion sentiment. After the festival, the relaxation of Shanghai's real - estate control and the emphasis on economic construction in important meetings, as well as the calendar effect between the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, strengthened the market's expectations for a "good start" and performance verification, and the margin trading balance increased rapidly [52]. 3.4.2 Capital Performance: Trading Activity in the Equity and Convertible Bond Markets Cooled, and the Margin Trading Balance Increased Rapidly After the Festival - From February 1 to February 27, 2026, the average daily trading volume of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was 75.423 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.04% compared with January 2026. The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2,310.723 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.11% compared with January 2026 [53]. - The margin trading balance showed a differentiated performance in February, increasing rapidly after the festival. As of February 26, 2026, the total margin trading balance in Shanghai and Shenzhen was approximately 2.66 trillion yuan, a decrease of 48.013 billion yuan compared with the end of January, but with a significant rebound after the festival. Most industries experienced net selling of margin trading funds [56]. 3.4.3 Convertible Bond Valuation: Valuation Rose Overall, with Small - Cap and Technology Sectors Stronger - As of February 28, 2026, compared with the end of January, the conversion premium rates of many industries increased. From the perspective of major sectors, most sectors' valuations increased, with the financial sector showing a relatively obvious increase. The average conversion premium rates of home appliances, agriculture, electronics, automobiles, and non - ferrous metals increased by 14.37, 1.40, 1.34, 1.21, and 0.55 pct respectively [58]. - Most rated and sized convertible bonds' valuations increased. As of February 28, compared with the end of January, the fitted premium rates of high - rated convertible bonds represented by AAA/AA + increased by 1.59 pct, medium - rated AA/AA - increased by 2.11 pct, and low - rated A/A - increased by 3.92 pct. In terms of size, the fitted premium rates of convertible bonds over 5 billion yuan increased by 1.70 pct, those in the 2 - 5 billion yuan (including 5 billion yuan) range increased by 1.56 pct, those in the 1 - 2 billion yuan (including 2 billion yuan) range increased by 1.40 pct, those in the 0.3 - 1 billion yuan (including 1 billion yuan) range increased by 1.71 pct, and those below 0.3 billion yuan (including) increased by 2.75 pct [66]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation: New Bond Issuance Continued to be Light, and the Pace of New Bond Issuance Plans Slowed Down 3.5.1 In February, 1 Convertible Bond was Issued, and 3 New Convertible Bonds were Listed - In February, the issuance of convertible bonds continued to be light, with the scale decreasing month - on - month. Only Haitian Convertible Bond was issued, with a scale of 801 million yuan. Aiwei, Longjian, and Shangtai Convertible Bonds were listed, with a total scale of 4.635 billion yuan [67]. - The online subscription for new convertible bonds decreased in February. The average effective subscription amount was 8.79 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 81.38%. The online winning rate was 0.0009%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0018 pct [73]. - As of February 28, 2026, the total scale of convertible bonds to be issued was approximately 138.375 billion yuan. Five listed companies obtained approval for convertible bond issuance, with a planned issuance scale of 4.387 billion yuan. Seven convertible bond issuances had passed the review committee and were waiting for approval, with a total scale of 6.966 billion yuan. In February, five new board proposals were added, with a total scale of 12.42 billion yuan [74]. - In March 2026, the number and scale of convertible bonds to be delisted increased. As of February 27, the total balance was 16.459 billion yuan, and 14 convertible bonds would be delisted [81]. - Four convertible bonds' boards proposed downward revisions, and four convertible bonds announced the results of downward revisions. In February, 10 convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 15 convertible bonds announced expected downward revisions [84][85]. - In February, 12 convertible bonds announced early redemptions, many convertible bonds announced no early redemptions, and some convertible bonds announced that they were expected to meet the redemption conditions [88]. 3.5.2 In January, Holders on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges Continued to Reduce Holdings, and Public Funds Performed Relatively Actively - The total scale of convertible bonds held by various entities on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges further decreased, with a significant reduction on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. In January, the total face value of convertible bonds held by the two exchanges was 558.832 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.06 billion yuan compared with the end of January, a decline of 1.46% [92]. - Public funds' holdings of convertible bonds increased, but their relative proportion decreased. In January, the total face value of convertible bonds held by public funds on the two exchanges was 240.076 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 6.88%, and the proportion was 44.08%, a month - on - month increase of 3.44 pct [94]. - Enterprise annuities' holdings of convertible bonds on the two exchanges decreased. In January, the total face value of convertible bonds held by enterprise annuities on the two exchanges was 83.843 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 4.64%, and the proportion was 15.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 pct [94]. - Securities companies' holdings of convertible bonds on the two exchanges decreased. On the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the face value of convertible bonds held by securities companies' proprietary trading decreased by 0.07% compared with the end of January, and the proportion increased by 0.07 pct month - on - month. The face value of convertible bonds held by securities companies' asset management decreased by 6.74% compared with the end of January, and the proportion decreased by 0.24 pct month - on - month. On the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the face value of convertible bonds held by securities companies' proprietary trading decreased by 1.16% compared with the end of January, and the proportion increased by 0.03 pct month - on - month. The face value of convertible bonds held by securities companies' collective asset management decreased by 5.20% compared with the end of January, and the proportion decreased by 0.09 pct month - on - month [95].