2026年3月碳排放月报：全国CEA交易进入淡季-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report As of February 25, 2026, the closing price of the national carbon market carbon emission allowance (CEA) was 81.00 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous month and down 9.75% compared to the same period last year. In the past 30 trading days, the average trading volume of national carbon emission allowances was 463,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.465 million tons from the previous period, indicating a decline in the activity of the carbon emission spot market [3][32][68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice on the work related to the national carbon emission trading market in 2026, including strengthening the management of the list of key emission units, data quality, quota allocation and settlement, and the management requirements for other key industries [9]. - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) officially came into effect on January 1, 2026. The EU's setting of a significantly high default value for China's product carbon emission intensity and plans to expand the product coverage range are unfair and discriminatory, and China firmly opposes these practices [30][31]. 3.2 National Carbon Market Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) As of February 25, 2026, the closing price of CEA was 81.00 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous month and down 9.75% compared to the same period last year. In the past 30 trading days, the average trading volume was 463,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.465 million tons, indicating a decline in market activity [32]. 3.3 Carbon Price Influence Factor Analysis 3.3.1 Energy Price - As of February 25, 2026, the price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port showed an increase compared to the end of the previous month but a decrease compared to the end of 2025. The pithead price of steam coal also showed a similar trend. The coke price remained flat compared to the end of the previous month but decreased compared to the end of 2025. The LNG ex-factory price index decreased compared to the previous period, and the European natural gas spot price decreased compared to the end of the previous month and the end of 2025 [35][36][37]. 3.3.2 Energy Consumption In 2025 from January to December, the cumulative apparent consumption of natural gas in the country was 426.55 billion cubic meters, 500 million cubic meters more than the previous year; the cumulative apparent consumption of coke was 496.7758 million tons, 15.706 million tons more than the previous year; the total apparent consumption of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel was 376.7113 million tons, 6.2874 million tons less than the previous year [40]. 3.3.3 Domestic Carbon Emission Structure China's total carbon emissions have exceeded 10 billion tons, accounting for about one-third of the world's carbon emissions. The largest source of carbon emissions in China is the "Electricity, Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply" industry, followed by the "Ferrous Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing" industry. In terms of energy types, carbon emissions mainly come from the consumption of coal, followed by fuel oil and natural gas [44][51]. 3.3.4 Total Social Electricity Consumption In 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 1,0368.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents' living contributed 50% to the growth of electricity consumption. The slowdown in the growth rate of the secondary industry's electricity consumption was in line with China's economic structural transformation [54][55]. 3.3.5 Power Generation Structure In December 2025, the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 858.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. The total power generation of four types of clean energy accounted for 32.3% of the total power generation, an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the thermal power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size showed a year-on-year negative growth for the first time since 2014, indicating a turning point in the development model of the power industry [58][60][61]. 3.4 Conclusion As of February 25, 2026, the closing price of CEA was 81.00 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous month and down 9.75% compared to the same period last year. The average trading volume decreased month-on-month, indicating a decline in market activity. The price of steam coal showed a short-term strong trend. In 2025, the apparent consumption of natural gas and coke increased, while the total consumption of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel decreased. In December 2025, the total social electricity consumption and the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased year-on-year, and the proportion of clean energy power generation increased [68][69][71].