动力煤或阶段性稳中偏强：动力煤月报2026年3月-20260302

Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core观点 - In February 2026, the domestic thermal coal price increased slightly. As of February 24th, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port reported by CCTD was 724 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 33 yuan/ton. The coal market currently has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Although the medium- to long-term loose supply pattern of thermal coal has not been completely reversed, and the support from thermal coal demand will gradually weaken in March, some downstream enterprises may replenish their stocks in advance due to the spring inspection of the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway and the disruptions in Indonesian coal supply, which will provide some support to coal prices. It is expected that thermal coal prices will maintain a narrow range in March and may show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [3][6][64]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review 1.1 Price Review - In February, domestic thermal coal prices rose slightly. As of February 24th, the 5500K thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao Port reported by CCTD was 724 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 33 yuan/ton. In the international market, the prices of major international thermal coal indices were strong in February. As of the week of February 20th, the European ARA port coal price index was reported at $95.88/ton, flat month-on-month and 19.6% lower than the same period last year; the Newcastle NEWC6000 index was quoted at $117.4/ton, a month-on-month increase of $6.14/ton and 5.5% higher than the same period last year; the South African Richards Bay RB index was reported at $85.25/ton, flat month-on-month and 14.9% lower than the same period last year [9][10]. 1.2 Futures-Spot Price Difference - As of February 24th, the main contract of Zhengzhou coal was $74.4/ton higher than the quoted price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port [18]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply Side 2.1.1 Origin Situation - In December 2025, the national raw coal output was 437 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, but the absolute output was still high. The total national raw coal output in 2025 was 4.832 billion tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.2%. In February, before the Spring Festival holiday, the scope of coal mine shutdowns in the main producing areas continued to expand, and state-owned large mines also maintained cautious production under stricter safety supervision. After the Spring Festival, due to the approaching of the National Two Sessions, some coal mines were cautious in production, and the recovery of coal output was slow [21]. 2.1.2 Import Volume - In December 2025, China imported 58.6 million tons of coal and lignite, setting a new monthly high for the year, a month-on-month increase of 33.0% and a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 490.27 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. In the first 6 weeks of 2026 (as of February 9th), China's total marine coal imports were 38.088 million tons, equivalent to an average daily import volume of 907,000 tons, a 6.05% increase compared to the level of 855,000 tons/day in the same period last year. As of February 11th, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port between China and Mongolia was 42,000 vehicles, a significant increase of 42.5% compared to the same period in 2025 [29]. 2.2 Intermediate Link Transportation 2.2.1 Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway - In January 2026, the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway completed a cargo transportation volume of 31.28 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with an average daily transportation volume of 1.009 million tons. As of February 24th, the railway had completed a cargo transportation volume of 23.6754 million tons, a 1.7% decrease compared to the same period in January, equivalent to an average daily transportation volume of 986,500 tons [35]. 2.2.2 Bohai Rim Ports - In January 2026, the total railway coal inbound volume of the seven major ports in the Bohai Rim was 43.339 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.65%, equivalent to an average daily inbound volume of 1.398 million tons. As of February 25th, the cumulative inbound volume of the seven ports in the Bohai Rim was 35.968 million tons, equivalent to an average daily inbound volume of 1.4387 million tons. In terms of outbound volume, the total outbound coal volume of the seven major ports in the Bohai Rim in January was 46.303 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.05%, equivalent to an average daily outbound volume of 1.4936 million tons. As of February 25th, the cumulative outbound volume of the seven ports was 36.503 million tons, equivalent to an average daily outbound volume of 1.4601 million tons. As of February 24th, the total coal inventory of the 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.8 million tons, a month-on-month inventory reduction of 2.204 million tons, and 1.932 million tons less than the inventory after the Spring Festival last year [38][39]. 2.2.3 Shipping Situation - In February, the domestic and international shipping markets showed different trends. The international dry bulk market fluctuated within a narrow range. As of February 25th, the BDI index closed at 2,121 points, a month-on-month increase of 19.2% and a year-on-year increase of 104.1%. In the domestic shipping market, as of February 25th, the CBCFI index closed at 589.92 points, a month-on-month decrease of 13.1% and a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [44][45]. 2.3 Demand Side 2.3.1 Total Social Electricity Consumption - In December 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 908 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. In 2025, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 1.03682 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. From mid-to-late February, the domestic temperature was relatively warm, and during the Spring Festival, industrial and commercial electricity consumption declined, causing the daily coal consumption of power plants to reach a low point for the year. After the Spring Festival, although industrial electricity consumption gradually recovered, the peak of residential electricity consumption had passed, and the seasonal decline window was approaching, weakening the support for thermal coal demand [49][51]. 2.3.2 Power Generation Structure - In December 2025, the electricity generation of above-scale industrial enterprises was 858.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%; the average daily electricity generation was 27.7 billion kWh. From January to December, the electricity generation of above-scale industrial enterprises was 9.7159 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. In December, the decline in thermal power generation of above-scale industrial enterprises narrowed, while the growth rates of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power generation slowed down [52]. 2.3.3 Non-Electric Coal Demand - From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 8.2788 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%. In December, the national cement output was 144.164 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%; the crude steel output was 68.1774 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%; the refined methanol output was 9.0736 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, the non-electric coal demand and industrial and commercial electricity consumption of non-electric industries contracted seasonally and will gradually recover after the Spring Festival. However, due to the National Two Sessions, some high-energy-consuming and high-polluting industries will be cautious in resuming production, and the non-electric demand for thermal coal will remain weak in the short term [57][59]. Chapter 3: Conclusion - The current coal market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Although the medium- to long-term loose supply pattern of thermal coal has not been completely reversed, and the support from thermal coal demand will gradually weaken in March, some downstream enterprises may replenish their stocks in advance due to the spring inspection of the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway and the disruptions in Indonesian coal supply, which will provide some support to coal prices. It is expected that thermal coal prices will maintain a narrow range in March and may show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [66].