可转债市场周观察：转债逆势回撤，调整而非反转

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent adjustment in the convertible bond market is a short - term emotional correction rather than a reversal. It is an advance adjustment ahead of the equity market, providing a buffer for potential equity market fluctuations and offering elasticity for convertible bonds to follow the rise of the underlying stocks in the future. The short - term callback presents more opportunities than risks, with trading opportunities potentially greater than allocation opportunities [6][9][10]. - In the long run, a moderate increase in supply is beneficial for the sustainable and healthy development of the convertible bond market. The future trend of the convertible bond market mainly depends on the performance of the underlying stocks. Given the unchanged slow - bull expectation and the unbroken logic of the allocation demand for fixed - income plus products, the risk of continuous and significant valuation reduction in the convertible bond market is low [6][9]. - In the context of global risk evaluation differentiation, the stable domestic and volatile overseas environment is favorable for domestic assets. The main trend remains sideways oscillation with a slight upward trend, and the slow - bull pattern remains unchanged. Mid - cap blue - chip stocks will become the mainstay in the future, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals, chemicals, and agriculture are promising, with incremental demand concentrated in upstream industrial products [6][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Views: Convertible Bonds Retreated Against the Trend, It's an Adjustment Rather Than a Reversal - Last week, the convertible bond market experienced a significant adjustment, with the median conversion premium rate dropping by 5.5 percentage points and the 100 - yuan premium rate also dropping by about 2 percentage points. Market speculations about the reasons include negative factors in the capital market, profit - taking after short - term gains, and concerns about the supply pressure potentially brought by refinancing policies. However, the report believes that the decline is mainly due to market concerns about the significant deviation of the valuation of some high - parity convertible bonds from the fundamentals [6][9]. - In the long run, a moderate increase in supply is beneficial for the sustainable and healthy development of the convertible bond market. The future trend of the convertible bond market depends on the performance of the underlying stocks. With the unchanged slow - bull expectation and the unbroken logic of the allocation demand for fixed - income plus products, the risk of continuous and significant valuation reduction in the convertible bond market is low [6][9]. - The adjustment is regarded as a short - term emotional callback, providing a buffer for potential equity market fluctuations and offering elasticity for convertible bonds to follow the rise of the underlying stocks. The short - term callback presents more opportunities than risks, with trading opportunities potentially greater than allocation opportunities [6][10]. - In the first week after the Spring Festival, the equity index oscillated upward with increased trading volume. The sectors showed differentiation, with cyclical resources leading the rise and consumer and growth sectors showing mixed performance. The factors driving the market include the escalation of the international situation, rising commodity prices, the approaching Two Sessions leading to increased expectations of stable - growth policies, the start of spring construction and spring plowing demand, and the relaxation of real - estate policies [6][10]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bond Trading Volume Declined and Valuation Significantly Decreased 3.2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Rose and Trading Volume Increased - Last week, the equity market oscillated upward, with small and mid - cap stocks performing strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.98%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.80%, the CSI 500 rose 4.32%, the CSI 1000 rose 4.34%, the SSE 50 rose 0.17%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.05%, the STAR Market 50 rose 1.20%, the North Exchange 50 rose 0.48%, and the CSI 2000 rose 3.94%. In terms of industries, steel, non - ferrous metals, and basic chemicals led the rise, while media, commercial retail, and food and beverage sectors led the decline. The average daily trading volume increased by 331.078 billion yuan to 2.44 trillion yuan [14]. - The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Youcai Convertible Bond, Shuangliang Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Guanzhong Convertible Bond, Xingfa Convertible Bond, Yitian Convertible Bond, Julong Convertible Bond, Ruike Convertible Bond, and Huaya Convertible Bond. In terms of trading volume, Baichuan Convertible Bond 2, Shuangliang Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, Fengyu Convertible Bond, Shanbo Convertible Bond, Aofei Convertible Bond, Weidao Convertible Bond, Zhenhua Convertible Bond, and Jiaze Convertible Bond were relatively active [14]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Trading Volume Declined, and High - Price and Large - Cap Convertible Bonds Had Larger Declines - Last week, convertible bonds were significantly adjusted, with the valuation of high - parity convertible bonds dropping significantly. The average daily trading volume decreased to 68.138 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 0.23%, the median parity rose 3.3% to 111.0 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate dropped 5.5 percentage points to 29.3%. In terms of style, mid - and low - rated convertible bonds performed better last week, while high - price and large - cap convertible bonds performed weakly [20].