A股点评报告：美伊冲突引发短期扰动，中期向好趋势未改

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the US-Iran conflict has caused short-term emotional disturbances in the market, but the medium-term positive trend remains unchanged [3] - The overall market is expected to experience a brief low opening and then stabilize gradually, driven by emotional reallocation rather than a trend-based withdrawal [3] - A-shares are not directly involved in the conflict, and the impact is limited to emotional levels without affecting the domestic economic fundamentals and market liquidity [3] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the focus will shift back to fundamental transmission as short-term emotions dissipate, leading to increased sector differentiation [3] - Key driving factors include the high volatility of Brent crude oil prices and localized disruptions in the global supply chain [3] - Funds are expected to flow out of high-valuation growth and downstream consumer sectors, concentrating on sectors benefiting from geopolitical conflicts, particularly energy security, national defense, and financial security [4] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on three core beneficiary sectors while avoiding short-term pressured sectors, ensuring a structural layout [4] - Priority should be given to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas extraction and coal chemical industries, which will benefit from profit increases due to high oil prices and energy self-sufficiency strategies [4] - The defense sector is also highlighted, focusing on military mainframe manufacturers and military electronics, which will benefit from increased military demand and improved defense budget expectations [4] - Gold is recommended for its dual attributes of hedging against risks and inflation, providing a counterbalance to geopolitical risks and input inflation expectations [4] Long-term Outlook - The report asserts that the US-Iran conflict is a short-term external disturbance for the A-share market and will not alter the long-term trend driven by domestic economic recovery, policy support, and improving corporate profits [3] - Historical precedents, such as the Iraq War in 2003 and the US-Iran conflict in 2020, show that significant geopolitical events did not change the original operating trends of A-shares but rather provided opportunities for low-position layouts [3]