如何看待近期“HALO”交易？

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the Spring Festival, the overall sentiment in the A-share market has significantly warmed up, with the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes rising by over 4% within the week. The technology and resource sectors have shown a dual-line market, driven by different logics. The policy tone during the Two Sessions is expected to be "structural optimization" rather than "strong stimulus" [5]. - The technology sector remains prosperous but shows continued differentiation. The computing infrastructure and commercial aerospace sectors have more solid fundamental support, while the AI application and large model concepts face short - term pressure. The allocation logic for resource products and public utilities is expected to strengthen next week [8]. Summary by Directory Market Observation - Market Performance After the Spring Festival: The overall sentiment in the A - share market has warmed up after the Spring Festival. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes have risen by over 4%. The computing power industry chain, power, commercial aerospace, and resource product cyclical sectors have been active, but the "AI swallowing applications" narrative has impacted sectors such as A - share software and Hang Seng Technology. The global HALO trading strategy has become the dominant direction for foreign capital, and the A - share market has resonated [5]. - Driving Logic of the Dual - line Market of Technology and Resources: The dual - line market of technology and resources is essentially two sides of the same market logic. The technology sector is driven by the industrial prosperity logic of "AI driving the expansion of computing power and power demand and accelerating domestic substitution", and the resource sector is driven by the cycle repair logic of "PPI recovery, anti - involution policy implementation, and global resource re - pricing" [5]. - Policy Expectations During the Two Sessions: The period from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions is a time window with dense policy expectations and relatively high certainty of market rise. The current policy tone emphasizes "stabilizing expectations, preventing risks, and improving quality", and the policy combination is more inclined to "structural optimization" rather than "strong stimulus" [5]. - Configuration Outlook: The technology sector remains prosperous but shows continued differentiation. The computing infrastructure and commercial aerospace sectors have better risk - return ratios. The allocation logic for resource products and public utilities is expected to strengthen next week. The public utility sector has both substantial demand increments from AI computing power expansion and price mechanism reform expectations [8]. Market Review - Market Performance: Most major market indexes rose last week, with the CSI 1000 having the largest increase of 4.34%. The material and energy indexes performed relatively well, with weekly increases of 8.03% and 6.31% respectively, while the telecommunications service and financial indexes performed weakly, with decreases of 3.20% and 1.10% respectively. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 24 industries rose, with steel, non - ferrous metals, and basic chemicals having relatively large increases of 12.27%, 9.77%, and 7.15% respectively, and media, commercial retail, and food and beverage having relatively large decreases of 5.10%, 1.64%, and 1.54% respectively [9][15][18]. - Trading Heat: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A index last week was 24402.93 billion yuan (the previous value was 21111.36 billion yuan), which is at a relatively high historical position (92.80% in the three - year historical quantile) [21]. - Valuation Tracking: As of February 27, 2026, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A index was 23.71, an increase of 0.24 from the previous week, and it is at the 99.90% quantile in the past 5 years. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) have recovered [25]. Economic Calendar - Domestic Economic Data: The official manufacturing PMI for February will be released on March 4 [28]. - Overseas Economic Data: The US ISM manufacturing PMI for February, the US effective federal funds rate for February, the US ISM services PMI for February, and the initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 will be released from March 2 to March 5 [28].