宏观专题报告：关税变数下，出口增速几何？

Export Growth Forecast - In Q1 2026, January export growth is expected to decline to approximately 4.6% due to base effects and regulatory disruptions, followed by a significant rebound to around 16% in February, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival[1][2][3] - March is anticipated to see a decline in export growth due to the lagging effects of the Spring Festival, similar to patterns observed in 2015, 2018, and 2024[1][2][3] Tariff Impact on Exports - The cancellation of IEEPA tariffs is expected to create a short-term window for export growth, with a 10% reduction in tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. and a 5% decrease for Southeast Asian countries[2][3] - If the 122 tariffs are extended, overall export growth for the year is projected to stabilize at around 3-4% due to a moderate increase in 301 and 232 tariffs[3][4] - Conversely, if the 122 tariffs are not extended, there may be a significant increase in 301 and 232 tariffs, leading to structural changes in export dynamics, with overall export growth potentially exceeding 5%[3][4] Export Prediction Indicators - Port throughput data is a key leading indicator for export trends, showing a strong correlation with export growth, although it lacks price factors and cannot distinguish between import and export activities[4][5] - Shipping data provides daily insights into export trends but has limited coverage for developing countries, making it challenging to predict overall export volumes accurately[4][5] - PMI data, while consistent with export growth trends, is influenced by market sentiment and may not capture short-term fluctuations effectively[4][5] Risks and Considerations - Potential macroeconomic and industrial policy changes could lead to unexpected outcomes in export performance[5][6]