有色金属行业：贵金属避险溢价呈现结构性上行，资源民族主义抬头或加剧金属行业供给扰动

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][43]. Core Insights - The report highlights a structural increase in the safe-haven premium for precious metals, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and resource nationalism, which may exacerbate supply disruptions in the metals industry [1][11]. - The geopolitical risk index has reached historical highs, suggesting that the pricing of precious metals will continue to reflect these risks, with the current index at 163.74, significantly above the long-term average of 103 [5][22]. - The report notes that the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Iran situations, have led to a normalization of high geopolitical risk, which is expected to sustain the upward pressure on precious metal prices [9][23]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S.-Iran conflict has led to significant market reactions, with gold prices increasing by 18% to $5,280 per ounce and Brent crude oil prices rising by 15.1% to $72.52 per barrel as of February 27, 2026 [4][15]. - The report emphasizes that the duration and nature of the U.S.-Iran conflict will be critical in determining whether financial market risk premiums need to be reassessed [15]. Resource Nationalism - The rise of resource nationalism has been noted, with countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia implementing export restrictions that have significantly impacted global metal supply [11][34]. - For instance, cobalt prices surged by 185% to 462,100 yuan per ton following export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which supplies 76% of the global cobalt market [11][34]. Economic Policy Uncertainty - The report discusses the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on financial market volatility, with the uncertainty index reaching a historical high of 628.12, indicating a significant increase in market volatility expectations [10][24]. - The correlation between economic policy uncertainty and financial crises suggests that precious metals will continue to serve as a hedge against market volatility [10][24]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the supply side of the metals industry is vulnerable due to geopolitical tensions and resource nationalism, which could lead to unexpected price increases for related metal products [11][34]. - The ongoing demand for metals driven by technological advancements and infrastructure development is expected to further enhance industry profitability and valuation levels [11][34].