弱现实强预期关注空5多9：玻璃三月报-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass industry presents a pattern of weak current reality and strong future expectations. The short - term fundamentals are deteriorating, but considering the frequent market news disturbances, there is an opportunity to short the May contract and long the September contract [3][85]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review: Spot Price Increase and Widening Monthly Spread - Spot Price: As of February 27, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,050 yuan/ton in North China (+20), 1,100 yuan/ton in Central China (0), and 1,250 yuan/ton in East China (+70). The weekly changes in the prices of 5mm float glass from some manufacturers were 16 yuan/ton for Shahe Anquan, 8 yuan/ton for Shahe Great Wall, 40 yuan/ton for Tengzhou Jinjing, and 0 yuan/ton for Wuhan Changli [13][14]. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 05 contract closed at 1,062 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous week [14]. - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was 58 yuan/ton (-21), and the 05 - 09 spread was - 104 yuan/ton (-10). The spread between soda ash and glass futures was 132 yuan/ton (+35) [15][19]. 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Inventory Accumulation During the Festival and Delayed Start - up - Profit: For the natural - gas - based process, the cost was 1,566 yuan/ton (+2), and the gross profit was - 316 yuan/ton (+68). For the coal - gas - based process, the cost was 1,170 yuan/ton (+3), and the gross profit was - 120 yuan/ton (+17). For the petroleum - coke - based process, the cost was 1,107 yuan/ton (+2), and the gross profit was 3 yuan/ton (-2) [24]. - Supply: Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 147,135 tons/day, with 209 lines in production. There have been multiple cold - repair,复产, new - ignition, and conversion events in the production lines [26][27]. - Inventory: As of February 27, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 76.008 million weight boxes, an increase of 20.656 million weight boxes compared to the previous period. Inventories in various regions have generally increased, with significant accumulation in Central China and North China [30]. - Deep - processing: On February 26, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 71% (+48%). On February 27, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 19.3% (+4.7%). At the beginning of February, the order days of glass deep - processing were 6.35 days (-2.95) [33]. - Demand - Automobile: In January, China's automobile production was 2.45 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.846 million vehicles, and the sales volume was 2.346 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.926 million vehicles. In January, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 0.596 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 38.6% [42]. - Demand - Real Estate: In December, China's real estate completion area was 208.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. The new - start area was 53.13 million square meters (-19%), the construction area was 38.24 million square meters (-47%), and the commercial housing sales area was 94 million square meters (-17%). From February 16 to 22, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 80,000 square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 94% and a year - on - year decrease of 95%. In December, real estate development investment was 419.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [49]. - Import and Export: In December, China's float glass imports were 292,400 weight boxes (a year - on - year decrease of 67%), and exports were 1.7394 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 39%) [51]. - Cost - Soda Ash - Futures: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,194 yuan/ton (+32), and the basis of the soda ash Central China 05 contract was 31 yuan/ton (-32) [59][60]. - Cost - Soda Ash - Cost: The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda - ash enterprises was 1,303 yuan/ton (-7), with a gross profit of - 90 yuan/ton (-1). The cost of the co - production process was 1,647 yuan/ton (-45), with a gross profit of - 2 yuan/ton (+31) [61][63]. - Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 790,900 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2,800 tons), including 423,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons) and 367,900 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 400 tons). As of February 27, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.8944 million tons (a week - on - week increase of 316,000 tons), with 895,900 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 149,900 tons) and 998,500 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 166,100 tons). The exchange soda - ash warehouse receipts last weekend were 2,924 pieces (a week - on - week decrease of 1,111 pieces) [71][74][75]. - Cost - Soda Ash - Apparent Demand: The apparent demand for light soda ash was 353,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. The apparent demand for heavy soda ash last week was 384,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,700 tons. Last week, the production - sales ratio of soda ash was 61.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 38.01%. In January, the soda - ash inventory of sample float - glass factories was 23.9 days [83]. 3. Investment Strategy: Near - term Weakness and Long - term Strength, Short May and Long September - Main Logic: After the Spring Festival, the glass futures fluctuated in the first week. Due to the holiday, the market trading was stagnant, and the production - sales indicators declined significantly. The basis in the Shahe area is narrowing, and there is an expectation of price reduction for the spot in Central China. The 5 - 9 spread indicates a stronger far - month drive. The daily melting volume remains unchanged, and the national inventory is higher than last year, with obvious inventory accumulation in Central China. The demand for raw - sheet procurement is weak, and soda ash is considered weak. In the short term, the fundamentals of the glass industry are deteriorating, but considering the long - term cold - repair expectations and environmental policies, there is an opportunity to short the May contract and long the September contract [3][85]. - Operation Strategy: Short the May contract and long the September contract [2][4][86].