中东地缘扰动加剧，沪铜预计偏强运行：铜周报20260301-20260302

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20260301: Intensified Geopolitical Disturbances in the Middle East, Shanghai Copper Expected to Run Strongly [1] Core Viewpoint - Due to intensified geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, Shanghai copper is expected to run strongly [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - After the holiday, the Shanghai copper futures market fluctuated upward [9] - After the holiday, the supply pressure of copper spot increased, and the copper spot discount widened under pressure [12] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index this week was -$50.43/ton, basically the same as before the holiday and still low [16] - According to Steel Union, the port copper concentrate inventory increased by 46,000 tons week-on-week to 514,000 tons this week [20] - The spread between refined and scrap copper has declined compared with before the holiday [21] - In February, the number of production days in China decreased. The electrolytic copper output is expected to decrease month-on-month but increase year-on-year; the output in March is expected to rise again [24] - The copper spot import window is closed [25] - After the holiday, both the electrolytic copper spot inventory and the bonded area inventory increased [28] - This week, the LME copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory continued to increase [30] - After the holiday, the resumption of work of refined copper rods was slow, and downstream consumption still needs to pick up [31] - At the beginning of the Year of the Horse, many provinces intensively issued supporting details for the policy of trading in old cars for new ones [34] - Overseas orders increased, and some component factories have considerable orders on hand [35] - The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in March decreased by 4% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the government work report [41] - The core PPI in the US in January reached the fastest growth rate in a year, unexpectedly heating up, and the complexity of the Fed's monetary policy increased [44] - Fed Governor Milan reiterated that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by 100 basis points in 2026 [47]