高铜价VS高库存，铜牛旺季成色几何：沪铜月报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - With the approaching Two - Sessions and the start of the "Golden Three" peak season, against the backdrop of tight copper mines, high copper prices coexist with high inventories. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long - term, the outlook for copper remains positive [6][94]. - Although the high global copper inventory restricts the upside in the short - term, the expected supply of effectively circulating copper inventory is tight. With the approaching of the "Golden Three, Silver Four" consumption peak season and the Two - Sessions in China, market sentiment is positive, and there is a possibility of resonance between the macro and micro levels, leading to an overall upward trend in copper prices. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of price decline when the macro sentiment fades [6][94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Economy - The impact of Kevin Warsh's policy on the market is gradually subsiding. The FOMC has internal differences, with the dovish camp advocating a rate cut in June and the hawkish camp emphasizing the need for more evidence of inflation decline. The probability of a rate cut in June is about 52%, and it is expected to cut rates 2 - 3 times this year [10]. - The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, but the White House extended the tariff framework for 150 days. A 10% tariff has taken effect, and there are rumors of a potential increase to 15%, causing global market turmoil [10]. - The "safety stock theory" proposed by Goldman Sachs shows that countries are establishing strategic reserves, reducing the market - available inventory, and pushing up commodity prices. Meanwhile, countries' protectionism for key mineral resources is rising, which affects the supply of metals such as copper [10]. - Trump's administration plans to use AI to set reference prices for key minerals, aiming to weaken China's influence in the mineral market, which may lead to China's counter - measures and the division of the global mineral market [10]. - The US January non - farm payrolls data showed strong growth, but after the annual benchmark revision, the 2025 non - farm employment data was significantly revised downwards, and the importance of employment data has been questioned [11]. - Citrini Research's article warns of the potential economic crisis caused by AI, where productivity may soar while the economy withers [11]. - The Iranian foreign minister's visit to Geneva for the Iran - US negotiations and Trump's stance on Iran have increased global financial market volatility [11]. - In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing economy. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR have remained unchanged for 9 months, and Shanghai has issued the "Seven Measures" to boost the real estate market [15]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore abandoned merger negotiations. Six major overseas core mining companies, including Glencore and Freeport, have lowered their 2026 copper production plans, and Southern Copper's 2026 production guidance has also declined, increasing concerns about supply shortages [49]. - Trump plans to launch the "Project Vault" with an initial capital of $12 billion to protect US manufacturers from supply shocks and build a key - mineral supply chain excluding China [49]. - Congo (Kinshasa) has exported copper to the US for the first time. In 2025, China's copper concentrate imports reached a record high [49]. - The copper concentrate TC has been running at a low level, and the market expects a tight supply in 2026. The copper smelting over - capacity growth has been curbed, and the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association has proposed to improve the copper resource reserve system [50]. - In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 117.93 tons, a slight increase. Due to smelter maintenance, February's production is expected to decline. In 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [52]. - The scrap - copper supply has increased, and the scrap - refined copper price difference has rebounded. The CSPT group has reached a consensus on reducing production capacity, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing vicious competition [52]. 3.2.2 Demand - In January 2026, the monthly opening rates of copper processing enterprises such as copper products, electrolytic copper rods, copper strips, and wire and cable increased. After the holiday, the opening rates are expected to continue to rebound [74]. - The predicted copper consumption in 2026 is 16.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.75% [75]. - Green copper demand is strong, as renewable energy systems use 8 - 12 times more copper than traditional power systems. In January 2026, new energy vehicle sales increased slightly year - on - year. Power grid investment increased in 2025, and the photovoltaic industry maintained high - speed growth. In January 2026, the air - conditioning production plan showed seasonal fluctuations [76]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - Although the high global copper inventory restricts the upside in the short - term, the expected supply of effectively circulating copper inventory is tight. With the approaching of the consumption peak season and the Two - Sessions, the market is positive, and copper prices are expected to be volatile and upward. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against price declines when the macro sentiment fades [6][94]. - It is recommended to try long positions on dips. Industrial buyers should purchase as needed and increase inventory replenishment on dips. Sellers should wait for rebounds and hedge against upper - level pressure. In the long - term, due to tight copper mines, the explosion of green copper demand, and the increase in national strategic resource security premiums, the long - term trend of copper remains positive [6][94]. - In March, the focus range for Shanghai copper is [98,500, 106,500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12,500, 13,500] US dollars/ton [6][94].