东吴证券晨会纪要2026-03-02-20260302

Macro Strategy - The geopolitical risks have intensified since February, particularly following the military conflict involving Iran, which has led to a surge in global financial markets driven by oil and gold prices, indicating strong risk aversion [1][14] - The core risks identified include: 1. The blockage risk of the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil transport, with a daily transport volume of approximately 20 million barrels, accounting for about 20% of global oil consumption [1][14] 2. Disruption risks in the chemical supply chain, as Iran is the second-largest methanol producer globally, supplying over 60% of China's methanol imports [1][14] 3. Rising freight and insurance costs due to potential escalation of regional conflicts, which could significantly increase the costs of commodities passing through these routes [1][14] Foreign Exchange Market Impact - Short-term market risk aversion is expected to persist, with funds likely flowing into the US dollar and US Treasury markets, while the Chinese yuan may act as a "safe haven" [1][14] - The dollar index is anticipated to strengthen in the short term but may face pressure in the medium term if the situation escalates, potentially leading to a scenario of rising oil prices and inflation, prompting central banks to raise interest rates [1][14] - The yuan is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, supported by flexible domestic fiscal and monetary policies, with a projected trading range against the dollar of 6.80-6.95 in the short term [1][14] Commodity Market Impact - Short-term risk aversion is driving a synchronous rise in gold and oil prices, while medium-term supply chain disruptions and inflation pressures may reshape the global economic and financial landscape [1][14] - The potential for a prolonged regional conflict could lead to significant changes in global economic dynamics, with high oil prices and shipping costs potentially slowing global economic growth and increasing inflationary pressures [1][14] - Long-term geopolitical tensions are expected to enhance the strategic importance of energy and resources for national economies, with a shift from "efficiency-first" to "security-first" in resource supply [1][14] Stock Market Impact - Initial phases of geopolitical conflict typically pressure global stock markets, with the A-share market likely experiencing some downward pressure due to panic selling [1][14] - However, the impact on the A-share market may be pulse-like and not indicative of a systemic shift, as China's modern manufacturing system can help mitigate external shocks [1][14] - The A-share market is currently supported by domestic policies and trends, with sectors such as gold, oil, and military industries likely benefiting from the ongoing conflict [1][14] Bond Market Impact - Increased risk aversion is expected to drive funds into the bond market, particularly Chinese government bonds, which may attract safe-haven investments [1][14] - The primary drivers of the Chinese bond market will remain domestic fiscal and monetary policies, with expectations of continued liquidity support from the central bank [1][14]