长江期货养殖产业月报-20260302

Report Information - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Monthly Report on the Aquaculture Industry [1] - Report Date: March 2, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Ye Tian [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Pig Industry: In the short term, pig prices will fluctuate at the bottom due to oversupply in the first half of the year and seasonal weak demand. However, the potential for secondary fattening and frozen pork storage at low prices, along with government purchasing support, will limit the downside. In the long term, supply will gradually tighten from July to October, but price increases may be limited due to high sow inventories and cost reduction efforts [7]. - Egg Industry: In the short term, egg prices are expected to rise slightly but with limited upside due to ongoing supply pressure and seasonal weak demand. In the long term, supply pressure will gradually ease, but the process will be slow [53]. - Corn Industry: In the short term, the corn market will be supported by tight supply and post - holiday restocking demand. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern will be looser, and price increases will be limited [89]. Summary by Section Pig Industry Market Performance - As of February 27, the national pig price was 10.8 yuan/kg, down 1.41 yuan/kg from the end of last month. The Henan average pig price was 11.13 yuan/kg, down 1.33 yuan/kg. The 05 futures price closed at 11485 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton. The 05 contract basis was - 355 yuan/ton, down 1165 yuan/ton from the end of last month [7]. Supply - In December 2025, pig production capacity was still above the normal level. In January 2026, with positive breeding profits, capacity reduction slowed down. High production performance will lead to a relatively loose supply in 2026. Supply pressure will ease slightly from April but remain high in the first half of the year. Supply will decrease marginally from July to October [7]. - The average slaughter weight decreased monthly but was still at a high level compared to the same period. The willingness for secondary fattening increased as pig prices fell after the Spring Festival, potentially increasing future supply pressure [22]. Demand - The slaughtering rate of slaughterhouses first increased, then decreased, and then increased again in February. In March, it is expected to rise slightly at a low level. Frozen pork inventory is being depleted. As pig prices fall, slaughterhouses may increase inventory, boosting consumption [7]. Cost - Piglet prices decreased, and sow prices were stable in February. Breeding profits turned negative, and future breeding costs are expected to decline [7]. Policy - The government will continue to guide the pig production capacity to stay within a balanced range and ensure stable supply and prices. If the pig - grain ratio falls below 5:1, policy measures such as state purchasing will be implemented [7]. Strategy - Adopt a short - term bearish strategy for the 05 contract on rebounds. Be cautious about chasing up prices for the 07 and 09 contracts. Hedge on price increases for the 11 and 01 contracts before effective capacity reduction [7]. Egg Industry Market Performance - As of February 27, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.93 yuan/jin, down 1.03 yuan/jin from the end of January. The average price in the main selling areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 1 yuan/jin. The main contract closed at 3267 yuan/500 kg, up 41 yuan/500 kg. The main basis was - 597 yuan/500 kg, weaker by 991 yuan/500 kg [55]. Supply - The number of newly - laid hens in March is average. The inventory of laying hens has been slowly declining but remains at a relatively high level. In the long term, the supply pressure will gradually ease, but the process will be slow [55]. Demand - In March, egg prices rebounded from a low level. The demand for group meals and food factories supported the market. The price advantage of eggs over substitutes remained, supporting the bottom price [55]. Strategy - If the spot price increase is less than expected, take a bearish view on the near - month 04 and 05 contracts [55]. Corn Industry Market Performance - As of February 27, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the end of January. The main 2605 contract closed at 2360 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton. The main basis was 10 yuan/ton, weaker by 52 yuan/ton [94]. Supply - The national primary grain sales progress reached 66%, 4% slower than the same period last year. The supply pattern is relatively tight in the short term. Corn imports in December 2025 were 800,000 tons, a significant year - on - year increase [94]. Demand - Feed demand has strong rigid support, but there is no significant increase. Deep - processing demand is limited due to low operating rates and high product inventories [94]. Strategy - In the short term, the futures price will be supported by downstream restocking and low port inventories. In the long term, the price increase is limited due to the expected loose supply - demand pattern [92].