聚烯烃月报：等待需求检验，震荡运行-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For plastics, there is a game between high supply and cost support, and it is expected to fluctuate. In February, the maintenance intensity was insufficient, with the daily average output expected to increase by 13.2% year - on - year to 104,000 tons. In March, the planned new maintenance devices are only 1 million tons, and the supply - side pressure remains. The post - holiday inventory of the two major oil companies has risen to a neutral level, and the recovery of the agricultural film market is slow. If the recovery of the plastic film in March falls short of expectations, the industry chain may face de - stocking pressure. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the basis has fallen to a low level, with limited upward drivers. However, the strong oil price provides cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to operate with a fluctuating mindset [4]. - For PP, the devices maintain a high level of maintenance, and there is still support at the bottom of the market. In February, the supply maintenance intensity continued to exceed expectations, with the daily average output expected to increase by 4.2% year - on - year to 110,000 tons. According to the maintenance plan, the newly planned maintenance devices in March will be 3.28 million tons. Considering that there are no new device production plans before May, the industry chain's explicit inventory and basis are at a neutral level, and there are no prominent supply - demand contradictions at present. If the demand gradually recovers, the market is expected to stop falling and stabilize. Overall, due to the strong oil price and the lack of prominent fundamental supply - demand contradictions, it is advisable to be cautious about shorting. Attention should be paid to the price changes of propane and propylene at the cost end [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Plastics in February fluctuated weakly and broke through the previous low. It opened 15 points higher at 7029 at the beginning of the month, rebounded to the monthly high of 7086, and then weakened significantly. After the holiday, the inventory accumulation was in line with expectations, but the upstream maintenance was insufficient. It finally fell below the support level at the end of the month, reaching a one - month low of 6553, a decline of 8% from the high at the end of January. The monthly fluctuation range was between 6553 and 7086, with an amplitude of 533 points [3][13]. - PP in February fluctuated weakly but was significantly stronger than plastics. It opened higher at 6857 at the beginning of the month, rebounded to the monthly high of 6896, and then weakened. Before the holiday, it fluctuated within a narrow range, and on the last trading day before the holiday, it fell to the monthly low of 6552 following the oil price, a decline of 6% from the high at the end of January. After the holiday, due to high - level upstream maintenance, it was strong in the olefin sector, and the LP05 spread once fell to - 28 at the end of the month. The monthly fluctuation range was between 6552 and 6896, with an amplitude of 344 points [7][13]. 3.2 Market Indicators - Funds: As of Thursday this week, the main contract position of PE was 550,000 lots, reaching the highest level in the same period [19]. - Basis: As of Thursday this week, the main - contract basis of plastics was - 128 yuan/ton, at an extremely low level; the main - contract spread of PP was - 40 yuan/ton, at a neutral level in the same period [22]. - Monthly Spread: As of Thursday this week, the L59 spread was - 74 yuan/ton, hitting a new low this year; the PP59 spread was - 17 yuan/ton [25]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of Friday this week, the number of warehouse receipts for L and PP were 9,428 and 21,679 lots respectively [28]. - Cross - Variety: As of Thursday this week, the LP05 spread was 179 yuan/ton, and the MTO05 spread was - 186 yuan/ton [31]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply - PE: This week's PE output was 730,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 88% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11%. In March, only Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zhong'an United, and Lanzhou Petrochemical, with a total capacity of 1 million tons, are planned for maintenance, and the overall maintenance intensity is insufficient, so the supply side is under pressure [49]. - PP: This week's PP output was 770,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 76% and a cumulative year - on - year output increase of 5.3%. In March, the planned new maintenance devices will be 3.28 million tons, and the upstream supply is expected to maintain a high level of maintenance [51]. - Imports and Exports - PE: In 2025, the average monthly import volume of PE was 1.12 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%); the import volume in December was 1.32 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%), reaching the highest level in 2025. The cumulative year - on - year changes of LL, LD, and HE were - 8.8%, 8.5%, and - 4.2% respectively. The average monthly export volume of PE in 2025 was 90,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 29%) [54]. - PP: In 2025, the average monthly export volume of PP was 260,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 29%), and the single - month export volume in December was 270,000 tons. The average monthly import volume was 280,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 8.3%), and the import volume in December was 330,000 tons, the highest in the whole year [55][56]. - Downstream - PE: The downstream start - up rate of PE has declined, and the start - up rate of the agricultural film industry is at a low level in the same period [57]. - PP: The downstream start - up rate of PP has declined [61]. - Exports: In 2025, the average monthly export value of plastics and products was 11.8 billion US dollars (a year - on - year increase of 0.4%), and the proportion of exports to the United States was 14% [67]. - Inventory - Commercial Inventory: This week, the commercial inventory of PE was 1.22 million tons, slightly below the neutral level in the same period; the commercial inventory of PP was 1.08 million tons, at a high level in the same period [69]. - Petrochemical Inventory: As of Thursday this week, the petrochemical inventory of polyolefins was 870,000 tons [71]. 3.4 Balance Sheet - Annual Balance Sheet: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheets of PE and PP from 2014 to 2026E, including data on capacity, output, import volume, export volume, apparent consumption, output year - on - year growth rate, apparent demand year - on - year growth rate, and capacity utilization rate [74]. - Monthly Balance Sheet in 2026: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheets of PE and PP in 2026, including effective capacity, capacity utilization rate, monthly output, import volume, export volume, apparent consumption, cumulative output year - on - year growth rate, and cumulative apparent consumption year - on - year growth rate [75][76]. - Balance Sheet by Contract: It provides the supply - demand balance sheet forecasts for PE and PP contracts such as 05, 09, and 01, including data on output, import volume, total supply, month - on - month and year - on - year changes, export volume, apparent demand, and inventory month - on - month changes [77]. 3.5 Strategy - Plastics - Unilateral: Operate with a fluctuating mindset. Pay attention to the range of 6400 - 6800 yuan/ton for L2605 [6]. - Arbitrage: Hold the short position of the LP05 spread [6]. - Hedging: Since the basis is at a low level, sell - hedge at high prices [6]. - PP - Unilateral: Be cautious about shorting. Pay attention to the range of 6450 - 6850 yuan/ton for PP2605 [9]. - Arbitrage: Hold the short position of the LP05 spread [9]. - Hedging: Since the basis is at a neutral level, operate with a fluctuating mindset [9].