对二甲苯：地缘影响下，成本推涨PTA：成本支撑偏强MEG：单边趋势偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PX has a strong unilateral trend. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract and short on the 09 contract for hedging, and go long on PX and short on PF. The partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran impacts crude - oil prices and supports the near - end cost of PX and PTA. Although the supply of PX and PTA is currently relatively loose, the polyester start - up rate will drive inventory de - stocking after March. Attention should be paid to the change of domestic PX start - up rate [4]. - For PTA, it is advisable to go long on the 05 contract and short on the 09 contract for hedging, and go long on SC and short on PTA. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the cost of crude oil and PX is expected to rise. The near - end support of PTA is strong. The impact on PTA's actual supply and demand is small, and the main impact on its valuation is from the PX cost side [4]. - MEG should be traded in the range of 3700 - 4000, and a long - short spread trade on the 5 - 9 contracts is recommended. The partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran increases the transportation difficulty of MEG imports from some regions, and the marginal import volume is expected to decline. The exit of short positions will drive the price recovery of MEG [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - PX: The closing price of the main contract yesterday was 7394, up 12 (0.16%). The PX5 - 9 spread's closing price was - 26, down 20 from the previous day. The PX CFR China price was 931.67 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 295.04 dollars/ton, down 2.13 dollars from the previous day [2]. - PTA: The closing price of the main contract yesterday was 5250, down 10 (- 0.19%). The PTA5 - 9 spread's closing price was - 26, down 16 from the previous day. The PTA price in East China was 5200 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 285.43 dollars/ton, down 90.45 dollars from the previous day [2]. - MEG: The closing price of the main contract yesterday was 3703, up 3 (0.08%). The MEG5 - 9 spread's closing price was - 132, up 2 from the previous day. The MEG spot price was 3605 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro - environment - The oil market will consider the influence of the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the impact on Middle - Eastern crude - oil and natural - gas producers and the shipping industry after the severe missile strikes and retaliatory attacks by the US and Israel on Gulf countries starting on February 28 [3]. 3.3 Polyester Market - Zhejiang Rongsheng's polyester yarn quotation increased by 50 - 100 [3]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 3, PTA is 3, and MEG is 2. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3][4].