申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the intensification of geopolitical risks over the weekend, with a significant increase in pre - market crude oil futures and a decline in S&P futures, it is expected that the A - share market will be affected by risk - aversion sentiment and be weak overall. The previous trading day saw an overall rise in stock indices, with cyclical stocks performing strongly, the steel sector leading the gains, and the building materials sector leading the losses. The market turnover was 2.51 trillion yuan. Starting from March, as annual and first - quarter reports of listed companies are gradually disclosed, industry leaders with strong performance certainty will attract funds, driving the market from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". The market will shift from "general rise" to "selecting alpha", and pure concept stocks and small - and medium - cap stocks without performance support may continue to be weak, while policy - beneficiary and performance - improving sectors may have sustainable opportunities. After the holiday, the market is expected to continue the trend of volatile upward movement, and attention should be paid to the resonance effect of policy implementation and industry catalysis. Funds are likely to continue to focus on high - growth sectors to further consolidate the market's structural trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) were 4713.80, 4706.40, 4673.40, and 4614.60 respectively, with price increases of 4.20, 3.40, 5.60, and 5.00, and increases of 0.09%, 0.07%, 0.12%, and 0.11%. The trading volumes were 54648.00, 3382.00, 17060.00, and 6967.00, and the positions were 146645.00, 3731.00, 87415.00, and 36704.00, with position increases of 1168.00, 639.00, 1559.00, and 1152.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) were 3045.40, 3047.00, 3041.00, and 3005.00 respectively, with price increases of 13.20, 13.60, 13.00, and 10.60, and increases of 0.44%, 0.45%, 0.43%, and 0.35%. The trading volumes were 28262.00, 2402.00, 7540.00, and 4149.00, and the positions were 59512.00, 3237.00, 29842.00, and 15530.00, with position changes of - 697.00, 748.00, 989.00, and 1676.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) were 8645.40, 8620.20, 8525.20, and 8376.20 respectively, with price increases of 111.80, 105.80, 99.00, and 75.00, and increases of 1.31%, 1.24%, 1.17%, and 0.90%. The trading volumes were 78564.00, 4621.00, 35131.00, and 11338.00, and the positions were 138970.00, 5930.00, 106016.00, and 48679.00, with position increases of 2284.00, 1431.00, 4557.00, and 583.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) were 8531.40, 8486.20, 8330.60, and 8129.40 respectively, with price increases of 89.40, 86.00, 68.40, and 54.40, and increases of 1.06%, 1.02%, 0.83%, and 0.67%. The trading volumes were 100970.00, 5141.00, 35557.00, and 14155.00, and the positions were 177180.00, 7186.00, 114120.00, and 66848.00, with position increases of 1084.00, 1503.00, 3084.00, and 2123.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 7.40, 1.60, - 25.20, and - 45.20 respectively, and the previous values were - 5.60, 1.80, - 22.40, and - 45.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4710.65, with a trading volume of 261.42 billion lots and a total trading amount of 5788.21 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 4726.87, with a trading volume of 234.85 billion lots and a total trading amount of 5998.49 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.34% [1] - SSE 50 Index: The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 3039.43, with a trading volume of 43.91 billion lots and a total trading amount of 1373.65 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 3035.07, with a trading volume of 43.95 billion lots and a total trading amount of 1410.05 billion yuan, showing an increase of 0.14% [1] - CSI 500 Index: The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 8490.62, with a trading volume of 333.15 billion lots and a total trading amount of 5711.86 billion yuan, showing an increase of 0.83% [1] - CSI 1000 Index: The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 4162.88, with a trading volume of 14495.09 billion lots and a total trading amount of 8835.26 billion yuan, showing an increase of 0.39% [1] - Industry Indexes: The previous values of major consumer, medical and health, real - estate and finance, and information technology industries were 20617.12, 8215.98, 6284.31, and 3410.11 respectively, with declines of 0.10%, 0.22%, 0.11%, and 0.95%. The previous values of telecommunications and public utilities industries were 5821.42 and 2420.44 respectively, with a decline of 2.73% and an increase of 0.77% [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - The previous two - day values of the basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) and the CSI 300 index were - 14.67, - 20.27, - 55.67, and - 112.07 respectively. The previous values of the basis between IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) and the SSE 50 index were 5.97, 7.57, 1.57, and - 34.43 respectively. The previous values of the basis between IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) and the CSI 500 index were - 13.05, - 38.25, - 133.25, and - 259.02 respectively. The previous values of the basis between IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and alternate quarter) and the CSI 1000 index were - 29.44, - 74.64, - 230.24, and - 431.44 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index had increases of 1.03%, 1.68%, - 0.62%, and - 0.64% respectively. The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P, and DAX Index were 26630.54, 58850.27, 6878.88, and 25284.26 respectively [1] 3.5 Macro Information - On February 28, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated and died. The Iranian government announced a 40 - day national mourning and will soon elect a new supreme leader. US President Trump said that military operations against Iran may last about four weeks. He also mentioned that Iran's new leadership hopes to resume negotiations, and he has agreed to hold talks. The conflict has affected the financial markets in the Middle East, with the Iranian stock market suspending trading. On March 1, the Saudi Stock Exchange's All - Share Index fell 2.18%, the Egyptian Stock Exchange's EGX30 Price Index fell 2.5%, and the stock markets in Oman and Bahrain weakened [2] - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. Wang Yi said that under the promotion of China and Russia, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on the current Iranian situation. China's stance is to immediately stop military operations, return to dialogue and negotiation as soon as possible, and jointly oppose unilateral actions [2] - This week, there are many important events in the global market. Domestically, the 2026 National Two Sessions will open, discussing the government work report and the "15th Five - Year Plan"; China's February PMI, foreign exchange, and gold reserve data will be released; Alibaba's Qianwen will launch an AI glasses on March 2. Internationally, the Iranian situation is highly concerned; Russia, the US, and Ukraine will conduct a new round of negotiations; the Fed's Beige Book and February non - farm payroll report will be released; the 2026 World Mobile Congress will open; Apple will hold a new product launch on March 4. In terms of earnings reports, MiniMax, JD.com, Bilibili, etc. will release their latest results [2] - Many new - energy vehicle manufacturers released their February delivery data, and some offered purchase discounts in March. In February, Leapmotor delivered 28,067 vehicles, Li Auto delivered 26,421 vehicles, Zeekr delivered 23,867 vehicles, NIO delivered 20,797 vehicles, Xiaomi Auto delivered over 20,000 vehicles, and XPeng delivered 15,256 vehicles. NIO, Xiaomi, Leapmotor, etc. offered limited - time purchase discounts in March, including low - interest plans and purchase tax subsidies [2] 3.6 Industry Information - According to the "China Real Estate Index System Hundred - City Price Index Report (February 2026)" released by the China Index Academy, in February, the average selling price of new homes in 100 cities decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and increased by 2.37% year - on - year; the average selling price of second - hand homes decreased by 0.54% month - on - month and 8.78% year - on - year; the average rental price of ordinary homes in 50 cities decreased by 0.11% month - on - month and 3.79% year - on - year [2] - Qinghai Province issued the "Several Measures on Promoting the Large - scale Development of Concentrated Solar Power", the first provincial - level special support policy for concentrated solar power in China. Qinghai will take the lead in promoting the development of the concentrated solar power industry, guiding innovation resources to gather in concentrated solar power enterprises, and exploring the creation of flagship projects for concentrated solar power along the "Belt and Road" in Central Asia and West Asia [2] - According to the latest data from market research firm DRAMeXchange, in February, the contract price of PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8) products increased by 13.04% month - on - month to $13. This is the 11th consecutive month of price increases for DDR4, and the price has more than doubled in a quarter [2]