低估值强成本支撑，关注全球资源事件敏感性：中辉期货铁合金月报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in February is expected to be 390,000 tons and 770,000 tons respectively. The demand for molten iron is at a relatively high level, but the output of rebar has not increased significantly. The inventory of silicomanganese is at an absolute high level, while the inventory of ferrosilicon is at a neutral level. The import of manganese ore increased in 2025, and the South African government plans to levy a 15% ecological export tax on specific resource products including manganese ore from July 1, 2026. The industry is mostly in a state of loss, and the electricity price in Inner Mongolia has been raised. The valuation of both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is at a historical low, with strong bottom support. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips. In terms of spreads, if the mine - end event continues to ferment, the cost - end has a greater impact on price elasticity, so the arbitrage opportunity of going long on silicomanganese and short on ferrosilicon can be considered [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Silicomanganese: The output in January 2026 was 854,000 tons, and the expected output in February is about 770,000 tons [9] - Ferrosilicon: The output in January was 437,000 tons, and the expected output in February is about 390,000 tons [55] Demand - Silicomanganese: The iron - water output in February remained above 2.27 million tons, but the rebar output did not increase significantly and remained at a low level in the same period. The 2 - month silicon - manganese tender of the iconic steel mill has not been priced [3][15] - Ferrosilicon: The 2 - month silicon - iron tender of the iconic steel mill was finally priced at 5,760 yuan/ton, with a purchase quantity of 2,150 tons, a decrease of 1,163 tons compared with January. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative ferrosilicon export volume was 400,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.82% [60][63] Inventory - Silicomanganese: The enterprise inventory is 394,800 tons, maintaining an absolute high level in the same period [3] - Ferrosilicon: The inventory is 71,500 tons, maintaining a neutral level in the same period [3] Manganese Ore Import - In 2025, China's cumulative manganese ore import volume increased by 12.2% year - on - year. Among them, the cumulative import volume of South African manganese ore increased by 9.4% year - on - year. The South African government will levy a 15% ecological export tax on specific resource products including manganese ore from July 1, 2026 [3][30] Cost and Profit - Silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia: The spot cost is about 5,870 yuan/ton, and the industry is mostly in a state of loss. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia has been raised by 2 cents, and the current daily comprehensive electricity price of manufacturers is about 0.41 yuan/kWh [3] - Ferrosilicon in Ningxia: The cost is about 5,320 yuan/ton, and the industry is mostly in a state of loss [3] Market Quotes - Mainstream manganese mine quotes: The quotes of Comilog Gabon lumps, South32 high - manganese, South32 semi - carbonate, UMK semi - carbonate, etc. have shown an upward trend [27] - Port variety spreads: Not detailed in the report - Shipping data: Not detailed in the report - Port inventory: The inventory of Tianjin Port shows different trends for different varieties. For example, the inventory of Australian oxide ore has decreased, while the inventory of South African medium - low - grade ore has increased [40] - Manufacturer's manganese ore inventory: Not detailed in the report - Other costs: Not detailed in the report - Basis analysis: Not detailed in the report - Month - spread analysis: Not detailed in the report - Double - silicon spread: Not detailed in the report - Futures positions: Not detailed in the report - Double - silicon TOP20 seat net long positions: Not detailed in the report