Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-03-02 05:50Investment Rating - The report rates the railway and highway industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The "HALO asset" characteristics of railway and highway assets are prominent, marking the opening of a mid-to-long-term strategic allocation window. These assets are defined as heavy assets with low elimination risk, high barriers (approval, replication, CAPEX scale), and stable cash flows [2]. - The Spring Festival transportation peak shows a low-to-high trend, with improvements in the railway and highway sectors. From February 2 to February 28, 2026, the total inter-regional passenger flow reached 6.937 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.88%. Specifically, highway passenger transport volume was 855 million trips (up 5.62%), non-commercial vehicle trips on highways and national/provincial roads totaled 5.613 billion trips (up 5.76%), and railway passenger volume was 378 million trips (up 7.43%) [2]. - The beta long-term bond rates and risk premiums are declining. Due to heightened market risk aversion stemming from geopolitical tensions, capital is shifting from risk assets to safe assets, leading to a decrease in long-term bond rates and market risk premiums. This environment enhances the marginal allocation value of high-dividend assets [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests that the highway sector has two main investment lines for the year: traditional high-dividend investments and potential market capitalization management catalysts. Recommended stocks include Anhui Expressway, Shandong Expressway, Zhejiang Hu-Hang-Yong Expressway, Ninghu Expressway, and China Merchants Expressway. Stocks to watch include Sichuan Chengyu, Dongguan Holdings, Guangdong Expressway, Shenzhen Expressway, and Gansu Expressway. For railways, the overall passenger and freight volume is stable with growth, recommending Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway and Daqin Railway, while watching Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway and Guanghui Logistics [2]. Valuation Table of Key Companies in Transportation Industry - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the transportation sector, detailing their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 to 2027. For instance, Daqin Railway has a market cap of 102.8 billion RMB with an EPS forecast of 0.48 RMB for 2024, while Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway has a market cap of 242.2 billion RMB with an EPS forecast of 0.26 RMB for 2024 [3].