螺纹：钢价小幅反弹警惕下旬风险

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In March, steel prices are expected to have a slight rebound, but there are risks of price drops in the second half of the month. The inventory of steel products after the Spring Festival is estimated to peak at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years, slightly higher than last year. Usually, the inventory reaches its peak and starts to decline around the fourth week after the Spring Festival, and it is expected that inventory reduction will begin in mid - to late March. Attention should be paid to the progress of demand recovery. From a valuation perspective, the futures price of rebar is below the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and the long - process cost, with a relatively low static valuation [3][61]. Summary by Directory 01 Review: Black Futures Fell across the Board, with Raw Materials Weaker than Finished Products - Black - Spot Market: In February, the spot prices of black products showed a differentiated trend. Among finished products, both rebar and hot - rolled coils declined, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar slightly widened. Among raw materials, scrap steel and coking coal rose slightly, iron ore prices fell significantly, and coke prices remained flat month - on - month. For example, Shanghai rebar fell by 50 yuan (-1.54%), and the price of iron ore (Platts 62%) dropped by 42 yuan (-5.32%) [10][11]. - Black - Futures Market: In February, black futures prices fell across the board. Among finished products, rebar and hot - rolled coils fell by about 2%, with rebar's decline less than that of hot - rolled coils. Among raw materials, the decline was more significant than that of finished products, with iron ore leading the decline, falling 5.55%, and the decline of coking coal and coke also around 4.6% [13][14]. - Futures Market: In February, commodity prices showed mixed trends, and even within the same sector, the internal trends were quite differentiated [17]. 02 Outlook: Low Inventory Pressure, Focus on Demand Quality - Overseas Macroeconomy: The Fed's January meeting minutes released a hawkish signal, with a significant divergence among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates. In January, US inflation was slightly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate declined. The US tariff policy changed, with a reduction of 20 percentage points on Chinese - exported goods first and then an addition of 15 percentage points, resulting in a decrease in the tariff burden on Chinese goods exported to the US. However, high - tariff barriers on the steel and aluminum industries will remain [26]. - Domestic Demand - Overall Economic Situation: In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year - on - year, with fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) having a year - on - year growth rate of -3.8%. The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.8% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected that policies will be more proactive, with boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as the key focus areas [27]. - Domestic Demand - Infrastructure Construction: In December 2025, the investment in broad - based infrastructure continued to decline, with a year - on - year decrease of 16%. In 2026, as the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, corresponding supportive policies are expected [33]. - Demand - Real Estate: In 2025, the real estate market remained weak, with a year - on - year decline in real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area. The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to promote high - quality development in the real estate sector, and Shanghai released the "Seven Measures for the Property Market" in February 2026 to further relax housing purchase restrictions [38]. - Demand - Manufacturing: In 2025, manufacturing investment increased by 0.60%. In December 2025, the investment growth rate further declined from -4.45% in November to -10.55%. In January 2026, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing's prosperity level [40][41]. - Demand - Import and Export: In 2025, China exported 11,902 tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and imported 606 tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The net export of steel was 11,296 tons, a year - on - year increase of 905 tons (8.7%). The export of steel billets was 1,482 tons, a year - on - year increase of 848 tons. Since January 1, 2026, export license management has been implemented for some steel products, putting pressure on steel exports [47]. - Supply: In 2025, China's crude steel production was 96,081 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% (4,428 tons), and the production of rebar was 18,631 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.30% [54]. - Supply - Demand Projection: In February, the demand for rebar weakened seasonally, production continued to decline, and inventory increased significantly. Currently, the inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is estimated that the post - festival peak inventory of steel products will be at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years, slightly higher than last year. Usually, the inventory reaches its peak and starts to decline around the fourth week after the Spring Festival, and it is expected that inventory reduction will begin in mid - to late March [55][59]. 03 Strategy: Slight Rebound in Steel Prices, Beware of Risks in the Second Half of the Month - In March, steel prices are expected to have a slight rebound, but there are risks of price drops in the second half of the month. The overseas conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran may push up the prices of raw materials and boost black commodity prices in the short term. Domestically, attention should be paid to the economic goals set in the government work report during the Two Sessions. From a valuation perspective, the futures price of rebar is below the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and the long - process cost, with a relatively low static valuation [3][61].