国投期货综合晨报-20260302

Oil Market - The military strike by the US and Israel against Iran has escalated tensions, leading to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching nearly $82 per barrel before settling at $78, marking a rise of over 7% [2][22] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to Iranian actions is expected to provide ongoing support for oil prices until the situation stabilizes [21][22] Precious Metals - The military actions in the Middle East are likely to boost safe-haven demand for precious metals, with expectations of continued strong performance in the short term [3] Base Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to high visible inventories, while geopolitical tensions are expected to impact oil prices and, consequently, the dollar index, affecting the pricing of base metals [4] - Aluminum prices may see upward movement due to concerns over supply disruptions from the Middle East, where a significant portion of global aluminum production is located [5] - Zinc prices are supported in the short term by disruptions in Iranian lead and zinc ore transportation, although domestic supply remains adequate [8] Chemical Products - The escalation of conflict in the Middle East is expected to impact the supply of various chemical products, including methanol and urea, with potential price increases due to supply concerns [24][23] - The price of carbonated lithium is expected to remain strong due to supply worries stemming from Zimbabwe's export halt [12] Agricultural Products - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to affect agricultural commodities, with soybean exports from the US showing a decline, and potential impacts on domestic prices due to international supply chain disruptions [33][34] - The conflict may also influence the prices of oils, with expectations of increased volatility in the market for palm oil and soybean oil [34][35] Steel and Iron Ore - The steel market is experiencing fluctuations, with rising inventories and pressure on prices due to weak demand and geopolitical uncertainties [14][15] - Iron ore prices are expected to face downward pressure from oversupply, despite some signs of demand recovery [15] Other Commodities - The market for natural rubber and synthetic rubber is seeing increased prices due to geopolitical risks and rising costs of raw materials [31] - The paper pulp market is facing high inventory levels, which may limit price increases despite strong overseas pricing [43]