宏观提振料有限，后市警惕下行风险：钢材月度策略报告-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In February, the steel market declined unilaterally, with the decline of both rebar and hot-rolled coil contract 05 exceeding 2%. During the Spring Festival, the macro logic cooled down, and the expected logic failed to dominate the market. The molten iron production was higher than the same period, demand was weak, and inventory accumulated seasonally. The cost support weakened as the pre - holiday steel mill restocking logic ended. [2][7] - Although the market still has certain expectations for policies with the upcoming Two Sessions, the boost from the Two Sessions and the "15th Five - Year Plan" may be limited. The real supply - demand pressure is continuously accumulating. If no unexpected macro - policies are introduced later, the black market may continue to decline under supply - demand pressure. [2] - The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar tends to widen seasonally after the Spring Festival, and the space for further contraction may be limited. One can opportunistically establish positions for the spread to widen. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In February, the steel market declined unilaterally. Rebar and hot - rolled coil contract 05 both fell by more than 2%, performing weakly among commodities. During the Spring Festival, the expected logic could not dominate the market. Molten iron production was higher, demand was weak, and inventory gradually accumulated. The cost support weakened as the pre - holiday restocking ended. [7] Currency and Social Financing - M1 growth rate declined, and the M1 - M2 spread turned downward. Social financing growth rate continued to decline, and the spread with M2 re - entered the negative range. Overall, the marginal liquidity of "hot money" weakened, and social investment willingness remained low. [10] Price Index - In January, CPI was 0.2%, and PPI was - 1.4%. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8. [13] Steel Monthly Data - In 2025, the crude steel output was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the pig iron output decreased by 3% year - on - year. [14] Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data - As of February 27, 2026, the total output of five - major steel products decreased by 7.98 compared with the previous period, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.42%. The total consumption decreased by 69, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.61%. The inventory increased by 134.27, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.76%. [15] Steel Output - Since February, the output of five - major steel products has decreased and is at a low level compared with the same period. [18] Steel Production Profit - The blast furnace profit changed little. Rebar generally maintained a positive profit, while the profit of hot - rolled coils was relatively average. The EAF profit was good in the early stage, but with the decline of rebar price before the Spring Festival, the valley - electricity profit returned below the break - even line. [19] Steel Demand - Demand declined due to the Spring Festival. Construction steel consumption declined normally. The real estate data shows that the housing construction demand is difficult to improve significantly in the later stage. The consumption of coil products shows strong resilience, especially cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates. [38][41][55] Steel Export - In 2025, steel exports reached 119 million tons, the highest in history. The steel export license system implemented in 2026 will restrict the "buy - order" exports, and steel exports may face a phased reduction. [62] Steel Inventory - The rebar basis was strong in February. The spot price was relatively firm but may decline later due to inventory pressure. The hot - rolled coil basis strengthened slightly in February but was still near 0, and high inventory suppressed the basis. The rebar monthly spread fluctuated little and may weaken seasonally in March. The hot - rolled coil monthly spread fluctuated near 0. [75][79][85]