碳酸锂周报：供应扰动再起，价格偏强震荡-20260302

Report Information - Report title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report date: March 2, 2026 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side faces issues such as the non - resumption of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, the suspension of lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe, and ongoing mining license disturbances in Yichun. Although imports have increased, the overall cost is rising, and the cost reduction space for Australian mines is limited. Some lithium ore - purchasing manufacturers face cost - price inversion [5][7]. - The demand side shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The overall production schedule in March has increased month - on - month, and policies such as the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market [6]. - The inventory of lithium carbonate is in a destocking state. Considering the continuous supply disturbances and the strong downstream demand, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate [6][7]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Views Supply - side situation - Production: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 165 tons to 21,150 tons, and the January production decreased by 3% month - on - month [5]. - Mines: The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, the Zimbabwe Ministry of Mines announced a suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, and there are still disturbances regarding mining licenses in Yichun. The cost control of Australian mines in the third quarter has limited further cost - reduction space [5]. - Imports: In December 2025, the import of lithium concentrate in China was 789,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium carbonate in December was 23,989 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9% [5]. - Cost: The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers producing lithium carbonate by purchasing lithium ore faced cost - price inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had certain profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - side situation - Production and sales: In March, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month. In January, the combined output of power and energy storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% but a year - on - year increase of 55.9%. The combined export was 24.1 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 26.0% but a year - on - year increase of 38.3%. The sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% but a year - on - year increase of 85.1% [6]. - Policy: The new energy vehicle purchase tax policy is expected to support the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market in China [6]. Inventory situation - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a destocking state [6]. Strategy suggestions - Considering the supply - side disturbances such as the non - resumption of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, the suspension of exports in Zimbabwe, and the Yichun mining license risks, along with the strong downstream demand and the continuation of the destocking trend, it is expected that the subsequent import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Zimbabwe export ban and the Yichun mining - end disturbances [7]. 02. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium concentrate, monthly factory inventory of lithium, production of power and other batteries, production volume differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, average production cost of lithium carbonate, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium spodumene, and market price of ternary material 8 - series NCA - type [9][10][13][17][19][21][24][27][29][31][35][36]. - In January 2026, the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials accounted for 18.06% from salt lakes, 24.55% from lithium mica, and 45.37% from lithium spodumene [22][23].