PVC月报：库存高位难改，弱势震荡-20260302

Report Title - PVC Monthly Report: High Inventory Persists, Weak and Sideways Movement [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This month, PVC saw a rise followed by a fall. In March, the high - inventory situation is difficult to change, and the market is expected to be weak and sideways. The supply side is under pressure, and external demand's "rush to export" effect is weakening [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Movement: In February, PVC opened low at 5040, then rose and led the chemical sector, reaching a four - month high of 5178 on February 4, a 10% increase from the previous low. After that, it fell back with the overall commodity market. After the holiday, due to continuous decline in calcium carbide prices and weakening export orders, the high inventory and weak cost led to the price dropping to the monthly low of 4758, with an amplitude of 400 points [3][9] - Funds: As of Thursday this week, the main contract's open interest was 1.22 million lots, at a high level for the same period [12] - Basis: As of Thursday this week, the V05 basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and industrial customers could consider selling hedging on price rallies [15] - Calendar Spread: As of Thursday this week, the V5 - 9 spread was - 137 yuan/ton. The "rush to export" effect weakened before the holiday, and social inventory hit new highs, causing the 5 - 9 spread to fall again [18] - Valuation: As of Thursday this week, the northwest chlor - alkali integration profit was 1092 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level for the same period; Shandong's chlor - alkali integration profit was - 722 yuan/ton, still at a low level for the same period. Recently, caustic soda spot prices rebounded from low levels. In February 2026, Shandong's industrial and commercial electricity price was 0.63 yuan/kWh (down 0.02 month - on - month), falling for three consecutive months; Inner Mongolia's western industrial and commercial electricity price was 0.45 yuan/ton (up 0.01 month - on - month), rising for two consecutive months [21][24] 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: This week, PVC production reached 500,000 tons, a new high for the year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0%. In March, only Jiyuan Fangsheng, Qilu Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Tosoh plan to shut down a total of 640,000 tons of production facilities, and supply is expected to remain under pressure [26] - Domestic Demand - Real Estate: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate new construction/construction/completion/sales area were - 20.4%/ - 10.0%/ - 18.1%/ - 8.7% respectively. The sales area decline has widened for 8 consecutive months. Real estate transaction area is at a low level for the same period. In December 2025, the year - on - year changes in the price indices of newly built commercial residential buildings and second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities were - 3.05% and 6.07% respectively. The month - on - month changes were - 0.37% and - 0.70% respectively, with continuous month - on - month declines [31][34] - External Demand: The Asian market price remained firm. China plans to cancel export tax rebates on April 1, and the "rush to export" drove up Asian prices. As of now, CIF India is at $720/ton, and CFR China Main Port is at $720/ton. In 2025, PVC exports were 3.82 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.21 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 46%). This week, PVC producers' export orders increased by 2.75% from before the holiday, reaching 19,200 tons, and the cumulative undelivered orders remained around 224,000 tons. Overall orders have significantly declined from the previous high [37][41] - Inventory: As of Thursday this week, PVC enterprise inventory was 500,000 tons. The upstream and mid - stream inventory was 1.85 million tons (a 290,000 - ton increase from before the holiday), rising for 9 consecutive weeks. The large - sample social inventory was 1.35 million tons, and it is expected to remain stable by the end of March according to seasonal patterns [44][47] 3. Strategy - Single - sided Trading: Weak and sideways. Pay attention to the V2605 contract in the range of 4600 - 5000 yuan/ton [6] - Hedging: The futures price is higher than the spot price. Industrial customers can sell on price rallies [6] - Arbitrage: No arbitrage opportunities are currently available [6]