铝产业链周报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 4.2% to 57% compared with before the holiday. After the holiday, the downstream start - up will gradually rise and enter the peak season rhythm. Although the inventory pressure is large and the supply expectation has improved, the market trading logic has not changed. Coupled with the escalation of the Middle East situation, aluminum prices are still driven. However, as the Middle East situation is expected to cool down, the sustainability of the market is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Indicators - The content shows the trends of the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year Treasury yield and real yield, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, but no specific analysis is given [5]. 3.2 Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite is stable compared with before the holiday. After the Spring Festival, the domestic bauxite market has not started substantial transactions. Most mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are still in a shutdown state. Some mines will resume production around the Lantern Festival, and some will postpone until after the Two Sessions. Issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental protection supervision are difficult to be fundamentally solved in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore remained stable at $60.5 per dry ton compared with before the holiday. The import ore price is stable in the short - term. After the Spring Festival, the procurement side is in a short - term wait - and - see period, and the miners' reluctance to sell is increasing. The shipping volume of Guinea bauxite continues to increase, and the spot supply of imported ore continues to increase, putting pressure on the ore price [8]. 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 93.5 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from before the holiday, with an operating rate of 82.3%. The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 2,659.9 yuan per ton, a rise of 28 yuan per ton from before the holiday. The national alumina inventory was 5.284 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from before the holiday. The second - phase roasting end of a large alumina plant in Hebei was completely shut down due to policy influence, and the dissolution link continued to decline compared with before the Spring Festival. Two alumina enterprises in Shanxi are in the stage of maintenance. Supply - side disturbances support the alumina price [11]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.402 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 44.7 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from before the holiday. With the strengthening of aluminum prices, the future supply expectation of electrolytic aluminum has improved. New production capacity: Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton project has entered the trial - production stage, Tianshan Aluminum's second - phase 80,000 - ton project is still under construction and is expected to reach full production within the year. Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle production capacity, and there are rumors that an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Liaoning may resume production. Overseas, Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd.'s first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project is in production and may reach full production in the second quarter; the first batch of 500,000 - ton of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is in production. The Slovak government will seek to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons, and production may resume as early as summer; the about 200,000 - ton production capacity reduction of Iceland's Grundartangi electrolytic aluminum plant will resume production half a year earlier than planned, starting at the end of April [20]. 3.5 Inventory - After the Spring Festival, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased significantly, and it will continue to increase in the short term. The report also shows the inventory trends of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and LME aluminum from 2022 to 2026 [3][25][26][27][28]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 6.2% to 53.1% compared with before the holiday. The resumption of production in the first week after the holiday was slow. Most enterprises resumed work from the eighth to the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, initially focusing on furnace pre - heating. On the demand side, the terminal industries resumed work in an orderly manner, but the release of orders was not obvious. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand replenishment and inventory digestion [31]. 3.7 Downstream Start - up - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 4.2% to 57% compared with before the holiday. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 11.5% to 37% compared with before the holiday. After the Spring Festival, profile enterprises gradually entered the resumption of work and production stage, and the operating level increased significantly compared with before the holiday. In the industrial profile sector, photovoltaic profiles performed relatively well, while in the building profile sector, the performance was still weak. - Aluminum strips: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 4% to 67% compared with before the holiday. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the overall resumption of work in the industry was slow. Some enterprises completed equipment upgrading and maintenance during the Spring Festival and have gradually resumed work. The recovery rhythm of the downstream is different. There is no signal of warming in the building downstream, and there is a shortage of orders for curtain wall panels and aluminum veneers. Orders for high - value - added products such as automobile panels and aviation panels are relatively stable. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading domestic cable enterprises increased by 4% to 57% compared with before the holiday. The power grid continued to place orders after the holiday, matching and revitalizing enterprise orders. The resumption of work of enterprises after the holiday slightly exceeded expectations. The downstream start - up and production will bottom out and rebound. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 55.8% compared with before the holiday. The holiday factor led to a general decline in enterprise operations, and the downstream enterprises had concentrated holiday time. The resumption of production after the holiday was slower than in previous years, and the overall demand was poor [39][44][48].