碳酸锂月报：供需维持紧平衡，锂价具备向上弹性-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a pattern of intensified supply - demand tight - balance with further expansion of total inventory destocking. The price may remain in a high - level and strong - side oscillation. It is advisable to go long on dips, while keeping an eye on overseas lithium mine shipments and domestic production capacity resumption progress [77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2, up 1.1% month - on - month, returning to the expansion range. In January, CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI fell 1.4% year - on - year. January's financial data hit a record high for the same period, with a social financing scale increase of 7.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.1662 trillion yuan year - on - year. The US job market was unexpectedly strong, with falling unemployment and cooling inflation, making the Fed's interest - rate cut path uncertain. During the Spring Festival, Trump's tariff policies were inconsistent, increasing risk - aversion sentiment [3]. Supply Side - February's production is expected to be around 90,000 tons, down from last month due to the Spring Festival holiday when some manufacturers had holidays or maintenance. Overseas shipments from Chile increased month - on - month as a seasonal early shipment [3]. Demand Side - In January, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, up 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year. New - energy vehicle exports reached 302,000 units, doubling year - on - year. European new - energy vehicle sales were about 289,000 units, up 19.6% year - on - year but down 33.2% month - on - month; North American sales were about 90,000 units, down 33% year - on - year. Domestic new energy storage new tendering scale reached 15.07GW/72.03GWh, up 109%/151% year - on - year [4]. Inventory - As of February 26, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 100,093 tons, down 7,389 tons from last month. The upstream smelter inventory was 18,382 tons, down 624 tons from last month. The number of registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 38,451 tons, up 7,820 tons from last month [4]. Cost and Profit - As of February 26, the average industry cost was 113,407 yuan/ton, down 12,699 yuan from last month. The African SC 5% was quoted at $1,800/ton, down $100/ton from last month; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF was $2,348/ton, up $3/ton from last month; the lithium mica market price was 6,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last month. The lithium carbonate industry profit was 25,332 yuan/ton, down 18,670 yuan [4]. February Market Review - As of February 26, LC2605 closed at 173,660 yuan/ton, up 17% from last month. The spot battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 175,000 yuan/ton, up 11% from last month, and the basis discount narrowed. The main contract's open interest was 375,000. The main lithium carbonate contract first declined and then rose in February [6]. Production - Lithium carbonate production declined slightly. As of January, the national lithium carbonate capacity was 2,469,020 tons, up 0.7% month - on - month, with a monthly operating rate of 50.15%, down 0.12% month - on - month. January's production was 102,260 tons, down 3% month - on - month but up 61% year - on - year. As of February 13, lithium carbonate production was 21,640 tons, down 2,045 tons week - on - week. The enterprise operating rate was 46.99%, down 4.45% week - on - week. As of February 13, lithium hydroxide production was 6,365 tons, down 85 tons week - on - week, with an enterprise operating rate of 42.71%, down 0.57% week - on - week [10][11][13]. Import and Export - In December 2025, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, up 9% month - on - month but down 14% year - on - year. In 2025, China imported 243,000 tons of lithium carbonate in total, up 3.4% year - on - year, and exported 5,290 tons, up 38% year - on - year. In January 2026, Chile exported 16,950 tons to China, up 44.81% month - on - month but down 11.35% year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 788,500 tons of spodumene, up 8.09% month - on - month, equivalent to 78,500 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. On February 25, Zimbabwe suspended all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrate [15][18]. Terminal Demand - In January 2026, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, up 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 38.6%, down 12.3% month - on - month. New - energy passenger vehicle exports were 302,000 units, up 100.5% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. The domestic power battery loading volume was 42.0GWh, down 57.2% month - on - month but up 8.4% year - on - year. In January 2026, new - type energy - storage new installations were 3.8GW/10.9GWh, up 62%/106% year - on - year [24][29]. Digital Demand - In January 2026, China's smartphone sales fell 23% year - on - year. Apple was the only mainstream brand with year - on - year growth, with a market share of 19%. Huawei's sales fell 27% year - on - year but still had the highest market share. Global smartphone average prices are expected to rise 6.9% year - on - year in 2026 [30]. Product Production - As of February 27, lithium iron phosphate production was 97,009 tons, up 170 tons week - on - week, with an enterprise operating rate of 82.65%, up 0.14% week - on - week. The downstream purchasing sentiment for ternary materials was weak, and the operating rate was slightly lowered. Other cathode materials' downstream demand shrank to rigid demand and were produced according to orders [34][36][44]. Cost and Profit of Different Products - As of February 13, lithium carbonate production cost was 113,407 yuan/ton, down 12,699 yuan from last month, and the industry profit was 25,332 yuan/ton, down 18,670 yuan. As of February 13, lithium hydroxide production cost was 113,214 yuan/ton, down 4,581 yuan week - on - week, and the industry profit was 27,290 yuan/ton, down 15,755 yuan week - on - week. As of February 27, lithium iron phosphate production cost was 58,434 yuan/ton, up 2,283 yuan week - on - week, and the loss was 1,983 yuan/ton, down 208 yuan/ton week - on - week [59][62][65]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the data of lithium carbonate supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand gap from January 2025 to March 2026E. The supply - demand gap has been mostly positive in 2025 but turned negative in some months, and is expected to remain negative in early 2026 [76]. Operation Strategies - Unilateral strategy: Buy on sufficient dips, with a reference range of [160,000, 220,000]. Hedging strategy: Production - type enterprises can hedge against the upper limit of the range according to their production situations or reduce the hedging ratio. Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [78].