美伊冲突再度升级，贵金属受到提振

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market continued to rise amidst the intensifying confrontation between Trump and the US Supreme Court and the uncertainty of the third round of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. On Saturday, the US and Israel jointly launched a large - scale military strike against Iran, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran vowed to launch the most violent offensive, causing the most severe shock to the geopolitical pattern in decades [2][5][6]. - Geopolitical conflicts usually drive up precious metal prices in the short - term. After a possible pulse - like increase, prices may return to their original trend. The current US - Iran conflict has sharply increased market risk - aversion. Based on the trend of on - chain gold, the market expects the Middle East conflict to be controlled. It is predicted that precious metal prices may open higher and then fluctuate on Monday. If the geopolitical situation gets out of control, gold prices may break previous highs; if it is quickly controlled, gold prices will remain in a high - level oscillation. Silver prices are expected to remain highly volatile. In the long - term, due to frequent geopolitical risks and the continuous weakening of the US dollar's credit, the long - bull trend of precious metals remains solid [2][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1147.90 | 37.80 | 3.41% | 150146 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 1142.48 | 33.98 | 3.07% | 38408 | 235980 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 5296.40 | 166.40 | 3.24% | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 23019 | 3237 | 16.36% | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 22369 | 3099 | 16.08% | 498864 | 2988126 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 94.39 | 9.82 | 11.61% | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 623.75 | 99.95 | 19.08% | 16904 | 7355 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 609.99 | 84.94 | 16.18% | - | - | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2376.20 | 84.94 | 9.43% | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 464.85 | 84.94 | 11.53% | 4636 | 7355 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1828.00 | 84.94 | 2.32% | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [3] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Last week, the market was affected by the intensifying confrontation between Trump and the US Supreme Court and the uncertainty of the third - round nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's additional tariffs were illegal. The US imposed a 10% temporary global import tariff, and the average tariff rate dropped from 17.6% to 9%. Trump threatened to raise the tariff to 15% or higher [5]. - The third - round indirect nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran ended with significant differences. The US demanded Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear facilities, while Iran proposed to stop nuclear activities for a limited period and then resume them under supervision. The subsequent military strike and the death of Khamenei shocked the geopolitical pattern [6]. - The unexpectedly strong US PPI data restricted the Fed's easing space. Fed officials were divided on interest - rate cuts. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee believed that further rate cuts were not appropriate until there was more evidence of continuous inflation decline. Fed Governor Milan expected a 100 - basis - point rate cut in 2026 and advocated an early and substantial cut [6]. 3. Important Data Information - In January, the US PPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year (expected 2.6%, previous 3%) and 0.5% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous revised from 0.5% to 0.4%). The core PPI increased by 3.6% year - on - year (a one - year high, expected 3%, previous 3.3%) and 0.8% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous revised from 0.7% to 0.6%) [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 212,000 (expected 215,000, previous revised from 206,000 to 208,000). The unemployment rate in February seemed stable, and the market still expected the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year [9]. - The Indian market regulator allowed active - management equity funds worth $384 billion to allocate more funds to gold and silver, with a maximum of 35% of the remaining assets [9]. - Hong Kong is promoting the construction of an international gold trading center, planning to increase gold storage to over 2000 tons in three years, strengthen the linkage between Hong Kong and Shanghai's gold markets, and launch a gold central clearing system trial operation this year. Tax incentives for qualified institutions will also be considered [10]. - The Shanghai Gold & Jewelry Trade Association suggested that when recycling gold jewelry, sellers' valid IDs should be checked and recorded [10]. 4. Related Data Charts - Precious Metal ETF Holdings Changes: The total gold holdings of ETFs were 1101.33 tons on February 27, 2026, an increase of 22.58 tons compared to the previous week. The silver holdings of ishare were 15992.40 tons, an increase of 474.79 tons compared to the previous week [13]. - Multiple charts showed the price trends, inventory changes, and non - commercial net long positions of precious metals in different markets, as well as the relationships between precious metal prices and other factors such as the US dollar, inflation expectations, and interest rates [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][25][27][29][32][33][36][38][41][43]