有色金属基础周报：中东战事再起，避险情绪推动有色金属趋强-20260302

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The copper price is expected to remain strong at a high level, but the continuous upward momentum may be insufficient due to the lack of resonance between the macro and fundamental aspects and the slow progress of inventory reduction in the short term [2]. - The aluminum price is likely to experience shock adjustments. The supply expectation is improving, but the inventory pressure is relatively large. The escalation of the Middle - East situation will support the aluminum price [2]. - The zinc price may show a shock - adjustment trend. Although the fundamentals have weak support, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a short - term strengthening of the zinc price [2]. - The lead price is expected to rise steadily after the Lantern Festival. It is advisable to buy on dips within the range of 16,600 - 17,600 [2]. - The nickel price is predicted to maintain a strong shock. It is recommended to buy on dips, while for stainless steel, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - The tin price is likely to continue the shock - strengthening trend. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to moderately over - allocate polysilicon and wait and see for industrial silicon [3]. - The lithium carbonate price is expected to continue the shock trend due to supply disruptions [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - During the Spring Festival, LME copper was pressured initially and then rebounded. The escalation of the war between the US - Israel and Iran will push up the copper price in the short term, but the continuous upward momentum may be insufficient. Next week, the copper price may remain strong at a high level [2]. - The 2025 January - October copper production in Iran was about 320,000 tons, accounting for 1.7% of the global production [2]. Aluminum - The domestic bauxite price was stable compared with before the festival. The alumina operating capacity decreased by 200,000 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 24,000 tons [2]. - New investment projects are in progress, and overseas projects are also being put into production. The downstream processing enterprise start - up rate increased by 4.2% to 57% [2]. - The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the inventory pressure of recycled aluminum is relatively large. The escalation of the Middle - East situation is beneficial to electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy but negative for alumina [2]. Zinc - Last week, the zinc price showed a strong shock. The macro uncertainty is still high. The zinc concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and the downstream enterprises' actual consumption is limited [2]. - The zinc ingot inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a short - term strengthening of the zinc price [2]. Lead - Last week, the Shanghai lead main contract rebounded. The inventory is at a high level, and the price of lead concentrate and lead ingot increased after the festival [2]. - After the Lantern Festival, the lead price may rise steadily. It is advisable to buy on dips within the range of 16,600 - 17,600 [2]. Nickel - Last week, Shanghai nickel showed a strong operation. The tailings dam incident in Indonesia drove the nickel price. The nickel ore price rose, and the nickel iron price is expected to increase [3]. - The short - term supply - demand of refined nickel is still weak, and the stainless steel price increased slightly. The sulfuric acid nickel price decreased weakly [3]. - The nickel price is expected to maintain a strong shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips. For stainless steel, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Tin - The refined tin production in January decreased by 8.1% month - on - month and increased by 4.7% year - on - year. The tin concentrate import in December increased [3]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover. The tin supply is tight, and the price is expected to continue the shock - strengthening trend. It is recommended to conduct range trading [3]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The weekly output of industrial silicon increased by 270 tons, and the plant inventory increased. The production of polysilicon decreased, and the plant inventory increased [3]. - The demand for polysilicon is poor after the festival, and the price decreased. The industrial silicon price is at the bottom and fluctuating. It is recommended to moderately over - allocate polysilicon and wait and see for industrial silicon [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The production of lithium carbonate in January decreased by 3% month - on - month. The import of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate increased in December [3]. - The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply disruption may cause the lithium carbonate price to continue the shock trend [3]. Macro - economic Data - In the week of 2/23 - 3/1, important economic data included the US durable goods orders, China's LPR, and the euro - zone CPI [10]. - In the week of 3/2 - 3/8, important economic data included the euro - zone manufacturing PMI and the US employment data [22].