长江期货贵金属周报：地缘冲突升级，价格偏强震荡-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the death of the Supreme Leader Khamenei, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to an increase in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed down, and Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates. After the nomination of Warsh, the market still expects two interest - rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data shows a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver have shifted upwards. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [12]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build positions at low prices after the prices have fully corrected [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the death of the Supreme Leader Khamenei, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the gold price has risen. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5296 per ounce, up 3.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $5470, and the lower support level is $5200 [7]. - Due to the same reasons, the silver price has risen. As of last Friday, the weekly increase was 11.6%, closing at $94.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $84, and the upper resistance level is $110 [10]. 3.2 Weekly View - The reasons for the increase in precious metal prices are the same as those in the market review. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed down, and Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates. After the nomination of Warsh, the market still expects two interest - rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data shows a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver have shifted upwards. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [12]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build positions at low prices after the prices have fully corrected [13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data and trends of the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), yield spread (10Y - 2Y), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), Fed balance - sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price [16][18][21][24]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Current Week - The US January PPI annual rate was 2.9%, higher than the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 3%. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 21 was 212,000, lower than the expected 215,000 but higher than the previous value of 206,000 [26]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Current Week - The US and Israel launched a war against Iran, the Supreme Leader Khamenei has died, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Attention should be paid to the intensity of Iran's counter - attack and the scope of conflict spread. - The US January PPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, far higher than the expected 2.6%; it increased by 0.5% month - on - month, also higher than the expected 0.3%. Excluding food and energy with large fluctuations, the January core PPI increased by 3.6% year - on - year, far higher than the expected 3%; it increased by 0.8% month - on - month, also higher than the expected 0.3% [27]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 18,634.10 kg to 1,036,403.92 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory decreased by 12 kg to 105,060 kg. - This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 184,273.82 kg to 11,207,602.01 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 46,963 kg to 306,596 kg [14][31]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of February 24, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 162,188 lots, an increase of 7,597 lots compared with last week. - As of February 24, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 20,723 lots, a decrease of 2,133 lots compared with last week [14][35]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (March 4) at 21:15, the change in the US February ADP employment number will be released. - On Friday (March 6) at 21:30, the seasonally - adjusted change in the US February non - farm employment population and the US February unemployment rate will be released [37].