原油月报：地缘持续扰动，等待美伊谈判靴子落地-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, geopolitics still dominated the oil price trend. The US and Iran held three rounds of negotiations, and the market expected a low probability of reaching an agreement, leading to stronger oil prices. In March, the global crude oil consumption off - season arrives, and global refineries enter the peak maintenance period, which is bearish for the demand side. On the supply side, OPEC+ will hold a meeting in early March, and sources said OPEC+ may continue to increase production, resulting in a relatively loose supply - demand fundamental and greater downward pressure on oil prices. The upward momentum of oil prices still comes from geopolitics. The US and Iran will continue negotiations on March 2nd, and attention should be paid to the final outcome of the negotiations. It is recommended to use the option double - buying strategy or conduct reverse arbitrage operations after the US - Iran negotiation results are out [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Crude Oil Market Review and March Outlook: In February, geopolitics dominated oil prices. In March, with the off - season of consumption and refinery maintenance, demand is bearish. OPEC+ may increase production, and the supply - demand situation is loose. The key factor for price increase is the US - Iran negotiation on March 2nd. Recommended strategies are option double - buying or reverse arbitrage after negotiation results [8][9]. - Supply: In January 2026, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 135,000 barrels per day to 28.453 million barrels per day. EIA's February report in 2026 estimated the global crude oil supply at 107.85 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 1.56 million barrels per day. IEA estimated the global oil supply at 108.6 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 2.4 million barrels per day [9]. - Demand: In February 2026, EIA and OPEC monthly reports estimated the global crude oil demand in 2026 at 107.85 million, 106.52 million, and 104.78 million barrels per day respectively, with year - on - year increases of 1.56 million, 1.38 million, and 0.86 million barrels per day compared to 2025 [9][10]. - Inventory: As of the week of February 20th, US crude oil inventory increased by 16 million barrels to 435.8 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1 million barrels to 254.8 million barrels, distillate oil inventory increased by 252,000 barrels to 120.4 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve remained unchanged at 415.2 million barrels [10]. 3.2 Macroeconomics - The International Monetary Fund raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.1% to 3.3% in its January 19th report [15]. 3.3 Supply and Inventory - Supply: In January 2026, OPEC production decreased, while Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE increased production, and Iran and Venezuela decreased production. As of the week of February 20th, US crude oil production decreased by 33,000 barrels per day to 13.7 million barrels per day, and the number of rigs decreased by 2 to 409. US crude oil net imports increased [30][31][34]. - Demand: In February 2026, EIA and OPEC estimated the 2026 global crude oil demand at 107.85 million, 106.52 million, and 104.78 million barrels per day respectively, with year - on - year increases of 1.56 million, 1.38 million, and 0.86 million barrels per day. For 2027, the estimated demands are 108.75 million and 107.86 million barrels per day, with increases of 0.9 million and 1.34 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week of February 27th, domestic crude oil processing volume increased, and the import volume in December 2025 increased year - on - year. Domestic refinery capacity utilization decreased [38][41][51]. - Inventory: As of the week of February 20th, US commercial crude oil inventory increased, strategic inventory remained unchanged, gasoline inventory increased, and distillate fuel oil inventory decreased. As of the week of February 27th, Chinese port inventory and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory increased [58][60][63]. 3.4 Spreads and Positions - Spreads: WTI inter - month spreads remained low. As of February 26th, WTI M1 - M2 was $0.11 per barrel, and M1 - M6 was $1.53 per barrel. The domestic inter - month spreads rebounded due to geopolitical disturbances. US refined oil cracking spreads increased, while domestic refined oil cracking spreads declined [77][83][84]. - Positions: Information about WTI, Brent positions, and domestic SC warehouse receipts and total positions is provided, but no specific data analysis is given in the summary [86][88][91]. 3.5 Summary - The report provides investment strategies including futures, options, and hedging. It recommends option double - buying or reverse arbitrage after the US - Iran negotiation results are out [96].