Changjiang Securities·2026-03-02 06:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - Housing inherently possesses three attributes: residential, asset, and social. From a residential perspective, the cost of buying a home for self-use includes interest rates, transaction and maintenance costs, depreciation, and the difference in expected price appreciation. From an asset perspective, the return on holding housing includes net rental yield, expected price appreciation, and depreciation. Before rental prices recover, buying a home is less favorable than renting, and investing in real estate is less attractive than financial products. From a social perspective, buying a home is not purely an economic calculation; it includes emotional value related to stability and social circles, as well as school district premiums. There is always a fundamental consumption demand, with low-priced housing and significantly scarce high-priced projects being affordable and desirable, which may differ from broader trends [2][5][9]. Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 0.85%, with an excess return of -0.23% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 23rd out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 5.83%, with an excess return of +4.09% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 19th out of 32. The real estate sector performed poorly this week, with declines across development, rental, and property management categories [6][15]. Policy Updates - Shanghai has optimized purchase restrictions, allowing non-local residents to buy homes with reduced social security requirements. The maximum public housing loan limit has been raised from 1.6 million to 2.4 million yuan. In Foshan, guidelines for "good housing" construction have been released, and in Hefei, public rental housing management measures have been revised to broaden eligibility [7][17]. Sales Data - In the sample cities, new and second-hand housing registrations saw double-digit year-on-year growth after the Spring Festival. For the 12 days following the Lunar New Year in 2026, new housing registration in 37 cities totaled 833,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Second-hand housing registration reached 845,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 19% [8][18].