液化石油气（LPG）投资周报：内外盘分化显著，节前PG震荡偏弱-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, PG is still trading between the short - term tightness of international supplies and the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East. It is expected that PG will open higher next week due to the geopolitical situation. In the medium to long term, the abundant or even excessive supply of oil and gas resources will still put pressure on prices [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During this period, the price of the main contract of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures rose. After the Spring Festival, the main contract was switched to PG2604. Before the festival, the market was weak as most traders cleared their positions to avoid risks due to many uncertainties during the Spring Festival. After the festival, the price increased driven by downstream replenishment and the rise of international crude oil during the festival. The domestic spot market was weak as the festival atmosphere was strong and terminal demand had not recovered, which also suppressed the market. However, at the end of the week, positive news from the international market, such as a large reduction in Middle - East supply, boosted the paper - trading price and the market trend, and the price strengthened again on the weekend [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 548,800 tons, including 225,400 tons of civil gas (a decrease of 2 tons), 191,700 tons of industrial gas (unchanged), and 179,800 tons of ether - after C4 (an increase of 6 tons). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 510,000 tons (an increase of 2.63%). After the festival, some enterprises in the Northwest and East China increased their external sales, increasing the domestic supply. A refinery in East China has a maintenance plan this week, and the maintenance enterprises in the Northwest may resume production. It is expected that the domestic LPG commercial volume may decline next week [4]. 3.3 Demand - The winter heating demand remains, but the LPG combustion demand is gradually weakening, and the demand has reached a relatively high level. The load of PDH plants has been decreasing before the Spring Festival, and the plant profit loss has been repaired. After the festival, due to continuous profit losses and the temporary shortage of Middle - East supplies, the propane purchase demand of port chemical enterprises is relatively rigid, and the propane chemical demand has not shown obvious improvement. After the festival, the MTBE market has recovered. Downstream traders replenished their stocks moderately as their inventories were depleted. At the same time, the gasoline ship - order transactions were good, which supported the market. The export negotiations were active, and the transaction prices were relatively high [4]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was [not clearly stated in the text] (a decrease of 1.73%), and the port inventory was 2.018 million tons. For refineries, as transportation capacity gradually recovered, manufacturers in various regions actively shipped goods, resulting in a temporary supply pressure. Coupled with the downstream's follow - up on demand and limited replenishment efforts, the storage capacity utilization rates in various regions of the country increased to varying degrees. For ports, the arrival of ships increased significantly, and imported resources were replenished. Due to the Spring Festival holiday, the market transportation capacity was limited, and the import price was high while the demand was average. The port shipments were light, and the overall demand showed a downward trend, resulting in inventory accumulation [4]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis: - 44.80 yuan/ton in East China, 365.20 yuan/ton in South China, and - 17.80 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 6,679, an increase of [not clearly stated in the text], and the lowest deliverable location was Shandong [4]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates: PDH was 62.66%, MTBE was 55.83%, and alkylation was 36.54%. The profits: - 374 yuan/ton for PDH to produce propylene, 142 yuan/ton for MTBE isomerization, and 1 yuan/ton for alkylation in Shandong [4]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.26 (an increase of 3.29%), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months was 67 yuan/ton (a decrease of 18.29%). In the first quarter, crude oil returned to a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [4]. 3.8 Other Factors - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased significantly last week. C3 continued to reduce inventory but was still at a historical high. The US and Israel attacked Iran, escalating the geopolitical conflict, and there was a risk of the Strait of Hormuz closing. The cold - wave driving logic weakened, and the natural gas price decreased. The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held in Beijing on March 4 and March 5, 2026, respectively. The March CP long - term contract was cancelled for loading due to a fault in the Juaymah NGL pipeline. The PG price opened higher and then gradually declined during the week, indicating that international supplies were relatively abundant, and there was a significant divergence between the domestic and international markets [4]. 3.9 Investment Views and Trading Strategies - Investment view: PG will fluctuate in the short term. - Trading strategies: For unilateral trading, short the far - month contracts at high prices; for arbitrage, go long on SC and short on PG, go long on PP and short on PG to profit from the PDH spread [4].