节后累库成交乏力，BR震荡偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the inventory of synthetic rubber has increased, and the actual transactions are light. In the short - term, it may rise significantly due to the Middle East situation. In the long - term, the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged with the resumption of production of downstream tire factories, the construction of overseas tire factory capacity, and the expected clearance of butadiene capacity [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of February 26, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 13,000 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's BR9000 was 13,000 - 13,150 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the crude oil market rose sharply, and the change in US import tariff policy had potential positive sentiment for the export of downstream terminal products. The price increase of natural rubber after the festival also drove the active price - testing of butadiene rubber. However, due to high inventory and the expected increase in butadiene downstream maintenance in March, the cost support weakened, and the downstream procurement intention was low [4] 3.2 Factors Affecting Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [not clearly given] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [not clearly given]%; the high - cis butadiene rubber production was [not clearly given] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [not clearly given]%. Some butadiene plants restarted, and the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber increased to a high level [3] 3.2.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous period. After the Spring Festival, many tire enterprises resumed work one after another, and the production scheduling was in the process of gradual improvement [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was [not clearly given] tons, with a [not clearly given] change; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was [not clearly given] tons, with a [not clearly given] change. The butadiene inventory increased slightly due to factors such as reduced imports and limited demand, and the butadiene rubber inventory continued to rise [3] 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 380 yuan/ton, in East China was - 280 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 280 yuan/ton [3] 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 4525 yuan/ton; the NR - BR spread was 1135 yuan/ton; the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.36% [3] 3.2.6 Profit - The production profit of butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation was 1780 yuan/ton, and that of C4 extraction was 3154.44 yuan/ton; the production profit of butadiene rubber was - 6 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 0.05% [3] 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory in the US increased significantly last week, and the fundamentals of crude oil/naphtha lacked positive support. The confrontation between the US and Iran was tense, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz was at risk. The "Two Sessions" in China were about to be held. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia on the border restarted, which had positive sentiment support for natural rubber. Overseas petrochemical plants were gradually cleared, and the cost - side advantage would gradually appear in the medium - and long - term [3] 3.3 Investment Views and Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Investment Views - In the short - term, it may rise significantly; in the long - term, the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [3] 3.3.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt the idea of buying on dips and grasp the market and capital rhythm. Arbitrage: Arrange long BR and short NR/RU [3] 3.4 Industry Data 3.4.1 Price Data - There are detailed price data of butadiene, butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber in different regions and from different companies, including ex - factory prices and market prices, as well as their daily and weekly changes [7][8] 3.4.2 Correlation Analysis - There are correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends of crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties in 1 - month and 3 - month periods [9] 3.4.3 Equipment Conditions - There are information on the maintenance of butadiene and butadiene rubber production enterprises, including the maintenance capacity, parking time, and driving time. There are also details of the operation and future plans of butadiene and butadiene rubber plants in 2026 [10][11] 3.4.4 Spread and Seasonal Analysis - There are data and seasonal analysis on BR cross - variety spreads, month - to - month spreads, and price ratios [12][13][14] 3.4.5 Cost and Profit Analysis - There are cost and profit analysis of butadiene and butadiene rubber, including production costs, production profits, and their seasonal changes [51][52][57] 3.4.6 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - There are data on the production, consumption, and inventory of butadiene and butadiene rubber, as well as the production, inventory, and import and export data of styrene - butadiene rubber and downstream products such as tires and conveyor belts [44][45][49]