国泰君安期货所长早读-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The US and Israel's joint military strike on Iran on February 28 has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which will directly impact global energy supply, inflation expectations, and the logistics pattern. Crude oil will be the most directly and severely affected commodity, and the price volatility of oil will increase sharply. The natural gas market will also face supply shortages, and the prices of chemical raw materials and downstream products will rise. The prices of copper, zinc, and lead, etc., will also increase due to supply concerns [7]. - The geopolitical situation has deteriorated over the weekend, and the short - term safety risks of the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden remain high. The freight rates of the Middle East (Persian Gulf) and Red Sea routes may rise, and the shipping insurance rates have increased. For the container shipping industry, the impact on the European - bound routes is relatively indirect [9][144]. - The pig market shows signs of passive inventory accumulation in the off - season. The spot price is expected to remain weak in the next 1 - 2 months and may reach a new low in the past five years. Attention should be paid to the indirect impact of the macro - commodity sentiment and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds [10][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have shown varying degrees of increase. The trend strength is 1 [19]. - Copper: Geopolitical risks have fermented, and the price has risen. The production of refined copper in December 2025 showed a supply surplus. The trend strength is 1 [23]. - Zinc: It is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures and spot have changed, and the inventory has decreased. The trend strength is 1 [26]. - Lead: The inventory has decreased, which supports the price. The prices of domestic and international lead futures and spot have changed, and the inventory has decreased. The trend strength is 0 [29]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - geopolitics. The prices of domestic and international tin futures and spot have increased significantly. The trend strength is 1 [33]. - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to overseas supply interruption. The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot have changed. The trend strength of aluminum and cast aluminum alloy is 1, and that of alumina is 0 [36]. - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum shows a slight upward trend following gold, and palladium is mainly in a state of oscillation. The trend strength of both is 0 [38]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, the actual situation of the Indonesian ore end is progressing, and speculation should be vigilant in March. For stainless steel, the contradiction at the ore end has increased marginally, and the cost support center has moved up. The trend strength of both is 0 [43]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Related Products: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will directly impact the global energy supply. The price of crude oil will be affected, and the prices of downstream products such as PX, PTA, and MEG will also be affected. The trend strength of PX and PTA is 3, and that of MEG is 2 [7][76][77]. - Rubber: It is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The prices of rubber futures and spot have changed, and the cost of raw materials for tires has increased. The trend strength is 1 [80]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is expected to run strongly. The prices of synthetic rubber futures and spot have changed, and the inventory has increased. The trend strength is 1 [85]. - LLDPE and PP: For LLDPE, the upstream supply may shrink due to increased crude oil risks. For PP, the C3 raw materials may have fluctuations, and the reduction of PDH devices continues. The trend strength of LLDPE is 1, and that of PP is 2 [89][90]. - Caustic Soda: It is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The price of caustic soda futures and spot has changed, and the delivery pressure is relatively large. The trend strength is 0 [95]. - Paper Pulp: It is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The prices of paper pulp futures and spot have changed, and the supply and demand are in a state of game. The trend strength is 1 [99]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The prices of glass futures and spot have changed, and the demand start is relatively slow. The trend strength is 0 [104]. - Methanol: It is expected to run strongly. The prices of methanol futures and spot have changed, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The trend strength is 1 [107]. - Urea: It is short - term strong. The prices of urea futures and spot have changed, and the inventory has increased. The trend strength is 1 [113]. - Styrene: It is in a state of strong oscillation. The prices of styrene futures and spot have changed, and the inventory pressure in March is not large. The trend strength is 1 [117]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The prices of soda ash futures and spot have changed, and the supply is at a high level. The trend strength is 0 [119]. - LPG and Propylene: For LPG, the short - term geopolitical disturbance is strong. For propylene, the cost - end geopolitical disturbance exists, and the fundamentals remain tight. The trend strength of both is 2 [124]. - PVC: It is short - term strong. The prices of PVC futures and spot have changed, and the cost increase supports the short - term market. The trend strength is 1 [132]. - Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Fuel oil is about to rise sharply, and the volatility will increase significantly. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the rise. The trend strength of both is 2 [135]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: The fundamental contradictions of palm oil are limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of oil prices. Soybean oil is supported by the cost of US soybeans and operates within a range. The trend strength of both is 1 [160]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean: The Middle East geopolitical events affect the sentiment, and they may be stable and slightly strong. The prices of soybean meal and soybean futures and spot have changed. The trend strength of both is 1 [169]. - Corn: It is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The prices of corn futures and spot have changed, and the price of northern corn has risen. The trend strength is 0 [173]. - Sugar: The resurgence of the Middle East war has intensified the price - rising sentiment. The prices of sugar futures and spot have changed, and the global sugar supply and demand situation has changed. The trend strength is 1 [178]. - Cotton: It is expected to maintain a strong trend. The prices of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the spot trading is cold. The trend strength is 1 [183]. - Eggs: It is in a state of oscillating adjustment. The prices of egg futures and spot have changed. The trend strength is 0 [189]. - Hogs: In the off - season, there is passive inventory accumulation, and the fat - standard price difference will drive the market. The prices of hog futures and spot have changed, and the inventory is increasing. The trend strength is - 2 [192]. - Peanuts: It is in a state of oscillating operation. The prices of peanut futures and spot have changed, and the market is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [196]. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): Attention should be paid to the short - term upward risk. Short - term low - buying of 04 and 06 contracts and protecting 10 short positions are recommended. The geopolitical situation has affected the shipping market, and the freight rates of some routes may rise. The trend strength is 1 [137]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip: The cost is raised by geopolitics, and they are short - term strong. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume has increased. The trend strength of both is 1 [149]. Offset Printing Paper - Offset Printing Paper: It is recommended to wait and see. The prices of offset printing paper futures and spot are stable, and the market trading is slow to recover. The trend strength is 0 [153]. Pure Benzene - Pure Benzene: It is in a state of strong oscillation. The prices of pure benzene futures and spot have changed, and the inventory has increased. The trend strength is 1 [157].