国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts and risks have a significant impact on the prices of precious metals and base metals. For example, the gold price is affected by the outbreak of geopolitical conflicts, and the copper price rises due to the fermentation of geopolitical risks [2][4][8]. - Different metals show different trends, including price increases, oscillations, and oscillations with an upward or downward bias [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot markets generally rose. For example, the daily increase of Comex gold 2602 was 1.82%, and the daily increase of London gold spot was 1.88% [4]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of some contracts increased, while the open interest decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2602 increased by 25,303, and the open interest decreased by 1,496 [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The joint military strike by the US and Israel on Iran has led to a sharp escalation of the regional situation, which has a significant impact on the gold market [4]. Silver - Price Performance: The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot markets generally rose. For example, the daily increase of Comex silver 2602 was 6.21%, and the daily increase of London silver spot was 6.30% [4]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of some contracts increased, while the open interest decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai silver 2602 increased by 31,572, and the open interest decreased by 2,359 [4]. - Trend: It is in an oscillatory pattern [2]. Copper - Price Performance: The price of the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.22%, and the price of the London copper 3M electronic disk rose by 0.28%. However, the night - trading price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.62% [8]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index increased by 79,669, and the open interest increased by 19,913. The trading volume of the London copper 3M electronic disk increased by 7,286, and the open interest decreased by 497 [8]. - Macro and Industry News: Geopolitical risks have led to a sharp escalation of the regional situation, and the supply of refined copper in December 2025 was in surplus [8]. Zinc - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.57%, while the closing price of the London zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 1.74% [11]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 10,174, and the open interest increased by 2,112. The trading volume of the London zinc increased by 434, and the open interest decreased by 3,669 [11]. - News: The central bank of China adjusted the forward foreign exchange sales risk reserve ratio, and the situation in the Middle East affected shipping prices [12]. - Trend: It is oscillating with a upward bias [2]. Lead - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose by 0.27%, while the closing price of the London lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.96% [14]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 6,221, and the open interest decreased by 1,080. The trading volume of the London lead decreased by 706, and the open interest decreased by 1,561 [14]. - News: Geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant escalation of the regional situation [15]. - Trend: The decrease in inventory supports the price, and the trend strength is neutral [2][14]. Tin - Price Performance: The prices of the Shanghai tin main contract and the London tin 3M electronic disk rose significantly. The daily increase of the Shanghai tin main contract was 8.53%, and the daily increase of the London tin 3M electronic disk was 6.74% [18]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 227,884, and the open interest increased by 42,991. The trading volume of the London tin increased by 650, and the open interest decreased by 231 [18]. - Macro and Industry News: Geopolitical events in the Middle East have a significant impact on the tin market [20]. - Trend: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - geopolitics [2]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price Performance: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy contracts showed different trends. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 10, and the closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract decreased by 76 [21]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts also showed different changes [21]. - Comprehensive News: The situation in Iran and the adjustment of the US PPI have an impact on the market [23]. - Trend: Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy have a certain upward trend, while alumina is neutral [23]. Platinum and Palladium - Price Performance: The prices of platinum futures and spot markets generally rose, while the prices of palladium showed different trends. For example, the increase of platinum futures 2606 was 5.81%, and the increase of palladium futures 2606 was 8.09% [24]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed differently [24]. - Macro and Industry News: The situation in Iran and other geopolitical events have an impact on the market [27]. - Trend: Both platinum and palladium have a neutral trend [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract rose by 520, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract decreased by 60 [29]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract increased by 130,488, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract increased by 29,790 [29]. - Macro and Industry News: There are various events in the nickel industry, such as the revision of the nickel ore benchmark price formula in Indonesia and the restart of nickel mines in Guatemala [29][30]. - Trend: Both nickel and stainless steel have a neutral trend [35].