铜专题报告：测度不同性质的美国铜超额库存

Report Overview - The report is a copper专题 report by Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd., focusing on measuring different types of excess copper inventories in the US [1] 1. Trump's Tariff and Key Mineral Timeline - On February 1, Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada starting from February 4, with a 10% tax increase on Canadian energy products and a 10% tariff on China [2] - On February 10, Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, effective March 12 [2] - On February 25, Trump initiated a copper import investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, covering all copper categories. The market generally expects the copper tariff in 2025 to reach 25% [2] - On July 9, Trump announced a 50% tariff on all imported copper starting from August 1 [2] - On July 30, Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1, excluding copper concentrates, cathode copper, anode copper, and copper scrap [2] - On August 25, the US Department of the Interior proposed to list copper as a key mineral in the 2025 Key Mineral List Draft [2] - On November 6, the US Department of the Interior officially included copper in the US strategic mineral list [2] 2. 232 Tariff - Related Copper Categories - The 232 tariff involves various copper categories, including copper matte, unrefined copper, copper alloys, copper scrap, etc., with corresponding HS codes [3] 3. COMEX and LME Copper Price Trends - Before Trump's tenure, COMEX and LME copper prices were basically the same with a small price difference [6] - In February 2025, as Trump imposed 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum and initiated a 232 investigation on copper, COMEX copper rose significantly relative to LME copper, with an implied tax rate of about 10% [6] - On July 9, 2025, after Trump announced a 50% 232 tariff on imported copper, COMEX copper jumped relative to LME copper, with an implied tax rate of about 25% [6] - On July 30, 2025, after Trump announced a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives, COMEX copper dropped to be basically the same as LME copper [6] 4. COMEX Copper Inventory Analysis - Since the second half of 2024, the copper inventories in LME and COMEX have been on the rise [9] - In February 2025, as Trump imposed 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum and initiated a 232 investigation on copper, the growth rate of COMEX copper inventory accelerated significantly and continued until February 2026 [9] - On August 25, 2025, after the US Department of the Interior proposed to list copper as a key mineral, COMEX copper inventory jumped and then continued to rise at the previous rate [9] - On November 6, 2025, after copper was officially included in the US strategic mineral list, the growth rate of COMEX copper inventory accelerated again [9] 5. US Copper and Its Products Import and Export Analysis - Usually, the US imports mainly refined copper and exports mainly copper scrap [12] - In February 2025, after Trump imposed 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum and initiated a 232 investigation on copper, the import of refined copper in the US increased rapidly, corresponding to the rapid growth of COMEX inventory [12] - On July 30, 2025, after Trump announced a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives, the import of refined copper in the US decreased rapidly, but the COMEX inventory still grew rapidly [12] - On November 6, 2025, after copper was officially included in the US strategic mineral list, the import of refined copper in the US increased rapidly again, and the growth rate of COMEX copper inventory accelerated [12] 6. Excess Copper Inventory Measurement Total Excess Inventory - The total excess inventory in the US is estimated to be 964,000 tons, including 715,000 tons caused by 232 tariffs, 13,000 tons caused by reduced downstream demand due to rising copper prices, and 236,000 tons caused by copper being listed as a key mineral [18] Visible Inventory - In the current 601,000 - ton COMEX copper inventory in the US, the normal inventory is estimated to be 94,000 tons, and the excess inventory is estimated to be 507,000 tons, including 376,000 tons caused by 232 tariffs, 7,000 tons caused by reduced downstream demand due to rising copper prices, and 124,000 tons caused by copper being listed as a key mineral [19] Invisible Inventory - The excess inventory in the invisible inventory is estimated to be 457,000 tons, including 339,000 tons caused by 232 tariffs, 6,000 tons caused by reduced downstream demand due to rising copper prices, and 112,000 tons caused by copper being listed as a key mineral [20]