流动性周报：地缘冲突，两会前后，债券如何？-20260302

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, bond trading can still be relatively optimistic. The profit - taking operation in the first few working days after the holiday was not strong. Driven by the risk - aversion sentiment, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond fell below 1.8% again, indicating that the callback of the resistance level around 1.8% was not effective. The top of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has moved down, and the phased downward trend continues. There are still bullish driving factors in March, and there is still a chance for the long - end yield to decline. It is recommended to choose the 10 - year variety with low volatility [4][21] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Geopolitical Conflicts and the Situation of Bonds around the Two Sessions - Trading Logic after the Festival: The trading logic of bonds after the festival has not changed much, still following the pre - festival rhythm. After the festival, liquidity is sufficient, and the probability of interest rate cuts during the "Two Sessions" is not high, so the trading sentiment in the bond market may cool down. The relatively loose liabilities of large banks at the beginning of the year drove the increase in the activity of the pre - festival allocation disk, but this may weaken in March. The issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds is still a major concern, and the detailed issuance plan of local bonds in March may pose pressure [10] - Yield Fluctuation in the First Week after the Festival: The yield fluctuated greatly in the first week after the festival. The surface trigger factor for the initial rise in yield was the relaxation of real - estate policies in first - tier cities, but the underlying factor was trading profit - taking. The relative weakening of the yield's allocation value after the festival, the continuous increase in supply, and the cooling of the trading of the monetary easing expectation led to an increase in the motivation for profit - taking [10] - Short - term Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Bonds: Geopolitical conflicts mainly affect risk preference and asset price comparison in the short term. On February 28, when the inter - bank bond market opened, the risk - aversion sentiment caused by geopolitical conflicts led to a decline in the long - end yield by more than 1 BP. Although the risk sentiment may be under pressure in the short term, the impact on domestic bond yields may be limited, and the adjustment is likely to be one - time and short - term. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is accelerating, and the central bank has adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales, but exchange rate changes are not the main factor affecting the recent trend of domestic interest rates [13] - Medium - term Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Bonds: Geopolitical conflicts affect bonds through crude oil prices and inflation transmission in the medium term. After the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022, the crude oil price soared, and the domestic CPI energy - related sub - items also rose. Since the beginning of this year, the rise of bulk commodities such as non - ferrous metals and the increase in related stock sectors have intensified inflation concerns. The current geopolitical conflict and the possible short - term rise in crude oil prices may trigger a resonance of inflation expectations, and expected trading may become the main line for some time [15][16] - Monetary Policy Expectations around the Two Sessions: Any policy increment in the real - estate or consumption fields may lead to pressure on ultra - long - term Treasury bonds. Policy increments related to fiscal policy may be realized through the expansion of special Treasury bonds, which will increase the supply pressure of ultra - long - term government bonds and may lead to negative pricing of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds. The probability of an interest rate cut around the Two Sessions is not high, and a reserve requirement ratio cut may be implemented first. A single reserve requirement ratio cut may have limited impact on the short - end, but it is beneficial for the long - end to play the game of easing expectations, compressing the term spread and making the yield curve slightly flatter [17][19]