国贸期货塑料数据周报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For LLDPE, due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, the disk price is expected to rise. In the short - term, the disk has no obvious driving force and is expected to be mainly volatile [2]. - For PP, due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, the disk price is expected to rise. In the short - term, the disk has no obvious driving force and is expected to be mainly volatile [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis 3.1.1 Supply - China's polyethylene production is 72.94 tons, a 0.54% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 87.95%, a 0.48 - percentage - point decrease from last week. There are new maintenance plans for Qilu Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical this week, and no restart of existing maintenance devices [2]. 3.1.2 Demand - The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE has decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films has decreased by 1.0%, and the operating rate of PE packaging films has decreased by 0.8%. The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese polyethylene has decreased by 1.6%. The overall operating rate of agricultural films has decreased by 14.6%, the operating rate of PE pipes has decreased by 5.8%, the operating rate of PE packaging films has increased by 4.4%, the operating rate of PE hollow products has decreased by 5.3%, the operating rate of PE injection molding has increased by 0.7%, and the operating rate of PE drawing has remained the same. The cumulative import volume in 2025 is 13.407 million tons, a 3.21% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, China's polyethylene import volume is 1.3299 million tons, a 4.62% year - on - year increase and a 25.21% month - on - month increase [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 579,700 tons, a 236,000 - ton increase from the previous period, a 68.66% month - on - month increase, and the inventory trend has changed from decreasing to increasing. The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses is 597,800 tons, an 81,580 - ton increase from the previous period, a 15.80% month - on - month increase, and a 2.51% year - on - year decrease. The inventory of Chinese polyethylene imported goods warehouses has increased by 8.86% month - on - month and decreased by 7.11% year - on - year [2]. 3.1.4 Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around - 14, with the disk at a premium [2]. 3.1.5 Profit - The costs of oil - based, coal - based, ethylene - based, methanol - based, and ethane - based production have increased by 117, 53, 43, 59, and 403 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. There are positive factors in the international crude oil market, such as OPEC+ suspending production increases, the US - Iran war, and the continuation of US sanctions on oil - producing countries [2]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a discount [2]. 3.1.7 Macro - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is warm, and the RMB is appreciating [2]. 3.2 PP Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the domestic polypropylene production is 779,400 tons, a 0.34 - ton decrease from last week, a 0.43% decrease; a 30,500 - ton increase from the same period last year, a 4.07% increase. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene this period is 75.49%, a 0.33% month - on - month decrease; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec is 80.42%, a 0.83% month - on - month decrease [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - This week, the average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased by 8.49 percentage points to 36.74%. The return - to - work rate of employees in downstream factories has increased, production lines have gradually restarted, and the industry has switched from the Spring Festival shutdown state to the production mode. The demand for woven bags for goods packaging and transportation has increased, and the replenishment demand for injection molding, modified PP and other industries has increased. The demand for food, daily chemical, and pharmaceutical packaging has steadily recovered [3]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese polypropylene traders' sample enterprises has increased by 73,000 tons compared with the previous period, a 41.32% month - on - month increase. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises is 739,900 tons, a 348,700 - ton increase from the previous period, an 89.14% month - on - month increase. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene port samples has increased by 15,700 tons compared with the previous period, a 21.54% month - on - month increase [3]. 3.2.4 Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around - 61, with the disk at a premium [3]. 3.2.5 Profit - This week, the profit of oil - based PP has declined, while the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, externally - purchased propylene - based, and PDH - based PP have recovered. The average international oil price has increased this week, and the profit of oil - based PP has declined to - 734.14 yuan/ton. In the thermal coal market, the resumption of production in domestic main production areas after the festival has been slow, and the thermal coal price has risen slightly under the tight supply situation. However, the increase is less than the price of coal - based PP, and the coal - based profit has slightly recovered to - 159.80 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a premium [3]. 3.2.7 Macro Policy - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is warm, and the RMB is appreciating [3]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - PP futures price is 6,611 yuan/ton, a 0.65% increase from last week; PE futures price is 6,597 yuan/ton, a 0.71% decrease from last week. PP spot price is 6,550 yuan/ton, a 1.50% decrease from last week; LLDPE spot price is 6,550 yuan/ton, a 2.67% decrease from last week [5]. - PP production is 1 (the data may have an error here), a 30.47% increase; PE production is 730,000 tons, a 0.54% decrease. HDPE production is 320,000 tons, a 0.41% decrease [5]. - PP operating rate is 23.7%, a 9.18% increase from last week; PE operating rate is 87.95%, a 0.54% decrease from last week [5]. - PP factory inventory is 53,691 tons, a 153.44% increase from last week; PE social inventory is 779,500 tons, a 0.41% increase from last week. HDPE social inventory is 20,900 tons, a 19.22% increase from last week [5]. - PP warehouse receipts are 21,531 lots, a 24.50% increase from last week; PE warehouse receipts are 9,428 lots, unchanged from last week [5].