贵金属数据日报-20260302

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: The escalation of the US - Iran conflict is expected to drive up precious metal prices due to increased safe - haven demand and inflation risks, though price fluctuations may occur due to weakening Fed rate - cut expectations [5][6]. - Medium - term: The precious metal prices may fluctuate, depending on the geopolitical situation and oil price changes [6]. - Long - term: The underlying logic of the precious metal bull market is solid. With the probability of Fed rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the de - dollarization trend, the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - Spot and Futures Prices: On February 27, 2026, London gold spot was at $5185.77/ounce, London silver spot at $90.12/ounce, COMEX gold at $5202.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $90.71/ounce. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding values. Compared with February 26, gold prices generally decreased by about 0.1%, while silver prices increased by about 1.0% [5]. - Price Spreads: The spreads of gold and silver TD - SHFE active prices, as well as the spreads between domestic and foreign markets, changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active spread increased by 43.7% from February 26 to 27 [5]. 3.2 Position Data - ETF Positions: On February 27, the gold ETF - SPDR position was 1101.33 tons, up 0.31% from February 26. The silver ETF - SLV position was 15992.39823 tons, down 0.65% [5]. - COMEX Non - commercial Positions: The non - commercial long, short, and net long positions of COMEX gold and silver all had different degrees of change from February 26 to 27. For example, the COMEX gold non - commercial long position decreased by 0.84% [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - SHFE Inventories: On February 27, SHFE gold inventory was 105060.00 kg, down 0.01% from February 26, and SHFE silver inventory was 306596.00 kg, down 11.48% [5]. - COMEX Inventories: On February 27, COMEX gold inventory was 33321135 troy ounces, down 0.50% from February 26, and COMEX silver inventory was 360332503 troy ounces, down 0.08% [5]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - Exchange Rate: The USD/CNY central parity rate remained unchanged at 6.92 on February 27 compared with February 26 [5]. - Interest Rate and Stock Index: The US dollar index decreased by 0.14%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 1.17%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 1.24%, the VIX increased by 6.60%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.43%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 2.78% on February 27 compared with February 26 [5]. 3.5 Market Analysis - Market Review: Affected by the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical tension, the safe - haven demand drove up precious metal prices in the night session on Friday. The main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.31% to 1159.98 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 6.95% to 23927 yuan/kg [5]. - Influence Analysis: The conflict between the US and Iran escalated over the weekend. Israel and the US launched an air strike on Iran, and Iran retaliated and closed the Strait of Hormuz. This may drive up oil prices, increase inflation risks, and support precious metal prices in the short term. However, it may also weaken the Fed's rate - cut expectations, causing price fluctuations [6]. - Future Market Analysis: Short - term safe - haven and inflation risks may support precious metal prices. Medium - term prices may fluctuate. Long - term, the precious metal prices are expected to rise, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [6].