原油周报：中东局势紧急升温，国际油价风险溢价飙升-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East situation has heated up urgently, and the risk premium of international oil prices has soared. OPEC+ continued to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the long - term supply - demand of crude oil remained in a relatively loose pattern. However, the current warming of the Middle East geopolitical situation is still the main driver of the short - term market, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term): EIA slightly raised its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2026 to 10,784 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.57 million barrels per day. OPEC's January 2026 crude oil production was 28.453 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.135 million barrels per day from December 2025; Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 13.996 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.304 million barrels per day. IEA reported that OPEC's January 2026 production was 29.28 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.41 million barrels per day from December 2025; Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.58 million barrels per day [3] - Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term): EIA slightly raised its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2026 and 2027. The expected demand growth rate in 2026 is 1.21 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.07 million barrels per day compared with the January 2026 forecast. OPEC basically maintained its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2026 and 2027, with an expected growth rate of 1.39 million barrels per day in 2026, an increase of 0.01 million barrels per day compared with the January 2026 forecast. IEA lowered its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2026 to 0.85 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08 million barrels per day compared with the January 2026 forecast [3] - Inventory (Short - Term): As of the week ending February 20, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 15.989 million barrels to 436 million barrels, a 3.81% increase. Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma increased by 0.881 million barrels. In terms of refined oil products, refined oil inventories increased by 0.252 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.011 million barrels, and heating oil inventories decreased by 0.119 million barrels [3] - Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term): On February 26, OPEC+ held a video conference to review the April production policy. Many representatives expected to resume a "moderate and small - step" production increase rhythm, planning to increase production by about 0.137 million barrels per day from April to balance market supply and demand. The CEO of Occidental Petroleum said that U.S. oil production could remain stable when oil prices were in the range of $60 - $65 per barrel, and oil prices needed to reach $70 to drive industry production increases [3] - Geopolitics (Short - Term): On February 26, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that the third - round indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. had made good progress, and the two sides were close to reaching a consensus in some areas. The technical teams of both sides will hold technical negotiations in Vienna, Austria on March 2. On the same day, Ukrainian negotiation delegation leader Umerov said that the negotiation process continued in Geneva, and bilateral talks with U.S. delegation members had begun [3] - Macro - Finance (Short - Term): The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending February 21 was 212,000, higher than the expected 215,000, and the number of continued jobless claims decreased to 1.83 million. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 96%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 17.3%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0.6%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut by June is 43% [3] - Investment View: Bullish. OPEC+ continued to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the long - term supply - demand of crude oil remained in a relatively loose pattern. However, the current warming of the Middle East geopolitical situation is still the main driver of the short - term market, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - Market Review: The Middle East situation heated up urgently, and the risk premium of international oil prices soared. This week, oil prices fluctuated sharply. Driven by the escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran and increased concerns about shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices received strong support from geopolitical risk premiums and rose significantly. As of February 27, the closing price of the WTI crude oil main contract was $67.29 per barrel, a weekly increase of $0.98 per barrel (+1.48%); the closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was $73.21 per barrel, a weekly increase of $1.97 per barrel (+2.77%); the closing price of the SC crude oil main contract was 488.4 yuan per barrel, a weekly increase of 27.7 yuan per barrel (+6.01%) [7] - Month - to - Month Spread & Domestic - Foreign Spread: The near - month spread weakened slightly, and the domestic - foreign spread declined slightly. The month - to - month spread of refined oil products remained stable, and the forward curve strengthened significantly. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel, as well as jet fuel, declined [10][16][23][32][35] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production: In January 2026, global crude oil production decreased slightly. Non - OPEC countries' production increased. U.S. weekly crude oil production was 13.215 million barrels per day. As of the week ending February 20, U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.033 million barrels to 13.702 million barrels per day; crude oil exports decreased by 0.277 million barrels per day to 4.313 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.659 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.135 million barrels per day compared with the previous week. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.391 million barrels per day, a 5.38% increase compared with the same period last year. The total number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. for the week ending February 27 was 5,506, with the previous value being 51 [47][57][59][72][82] - Inventory: U.S. commercial inventories increased by 15.989 million barrels, and Cushing inventories increased by 0.881 million barrels. Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased. In China, the inventory data of various refined oil products and ports also showed different changes [83][89] - Demand: In the U.S., the implied demand for gasoline and diesel decreased, and the refinery operating rate decreased. In China, the refinery capacity utilization rate rebounded. In the 9th week of 2026 (February 20 - 26), the capacity utilization rate of the atmospheric and vacuum distillation units of independent Chinese refined oil refineries was 60.63%, a 0.62 - percentage - point increase compared with the previous week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 51.69%, a 1.11% increase compared with the previous week and an 8.52% increase compared with the same period last year [107][118] - Profit of Chinese Refineries: The gross profit of major refineries decreased, and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel showed corresponding changes [129] - Macro - Finance: U.S. Treasury yields declined, and the U.S. dollar index fell [142] - CFTC Positioning: The speculative net long position of WTI crude oil increased [151]