华龙期货铁矿周报-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★ [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The terminal demand has not started yet, the steel mill production end has little fluctuation, the molten iron output is expected to decline in March, the iron ore inventory is relatively high, and the overall fundamentals are relatively flat. Affected by the situation between the United States and Iran, the market risk aversion sentiment is high this week, and the trend is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. [5][30] - The operation strategies for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options are all to wait and see. [5][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract fell 0.46%. [4] 3.2 Disk Analysis - It includes analysis of futures prices, spot prices (such as the spot price of PB powder 61.5% at Tianjin Port), and futures position net position analysis. [6][9][11] 3.3 Important Market Information - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will promote the ultra - low emission transformation of key industries with high quality, and complete the ultra - low emission transformation of 100 million tons of cement clinker and 50 million tons of coking production capacity in 2026. It will also focus on key regions to guide localities to carry out investigations and rectifications of inefficient and ineffective pollution control facilities in key industries and classified rectifications of traditional industrial clusters. [14] 3.4 Supply - side Situation - As of January 2026, Australia's iron ore shipments were 6,111.2 tons, a decrease of 1,028.1 tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipments were 1,889.1 tons, a decrease of 874.4 tons from the first half of the month. [18] 3.5 Demand - side Situation - It involves the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills. [22][24] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.09 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.93 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.45%, a month - on - month increase of 1.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.87 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.39 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 2.3328 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 53,400 tons. [27] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 170.9196 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4564 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 2.9848 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 527,100 tons; the number of ships at the port decreased from 107 to 99. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 178.9130 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5918 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume decreased from 3.1353 million tons to 2.6089 million tons. In terms of components, Australian ore increased by 2.1016 million tons, Brazilian ore decreased by 807,700 tons; trade ore increased by 1.0572 million tons, coarse powder increased by 1.7951 million tons; lump ore increased by 199,900 tons, concentrate decreased by 252,900 tons, pellets decreased by 150,300 tons, and the number of ships at the port decreased from 111 to 101. [28] - In mid - February 2026, key steel enterprises produced 20.29 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.029 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.3% month - on - month; the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 18.12 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.01 million tons, a growth of 19.9%; an increase of 3.98 million tons from the beginning of the year, a growth of 28.2%; an increase of 1.99 million tons from the same period of the previous month, a growth of 12.3%. [28] - In January 2026, the crude steel output of 69 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 147.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. Among them, China's crude steel output was 75.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. [29] - In February 2026, the PMI of the steel industry in Hebei Province was 48.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1 percentage points, falling below the boom - bust line. [29] - As of February 25, the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites across the country was 8.9%, a lunar year - on - year increase of 1.5 percentage points; the labor attendance rate was 15.5%, a lunar year - on - year increase of 3.7 percentage points; the fund availability rate was 29%, a lunar year - on - year increase of 9.4 percentage points. Among them, the resumption rate of real estate projects was 8.2%, and the resumption rate of non - real estate projects was 9.2%. [29] 3.7 Market Outlook - The terminal demand has not started yet, the steel mill production end has little fluctuation, the molten iron output is expected to decline in March, the iron ore inventory is relatively high, and the overall fundamentals are relatively flat. Affected by the situation between the United States and Iran, the market risk aversion sentiment is high this week, and the trend is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. [5][30] 3.8 Operation Strategies - Single - side trading: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [5][31]