地缘冲突抬升不确定性，警惕油脂市场短期波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In February 2026, the domestic vegetable oil sector showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with weak oscillations and differentiated trends among varieties. The sudden escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has become the biggest uncertainty in the current market, which may push up the international crude oil price, boost the global biodiesel blending demand, and bring additional demand and upward price momentum to vegetable oils. Different types of oils have different supply - demand situations and price trends [6][12][89] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As of the night session on February 27, 2026, the Y2605 soybean oil contract was reported at 8,220 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; the P2605 palm oil contract was reported at 8,792 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the OI2605 rapeseed oil contract was reported at 9,216 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The BMD crude palm oil futures main contract closed up 0.87% at 4,040 ringgit/ton. As of the close on February 27, the CBOT May soybean contract was reported at 1,170 cents/bushel, up 0.56%; the CBOT May soybean oil contract was reported at 61.77 cents/pound, up 0.02% [6] 3.2 Macroeconomic Dynamics - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in March at $938.87/ton, higher than $918.47/ton in February, and the export tariff on crude palm oil in March rose to $124/ton. From February 1 - 20, 2026, the production of Malaysian crude palm oil decreased by 12.29% month - on - month. In January, the production of Malaysian crude palm oil decreased by 13.78% to 1.5775 million tons, consumption increased by 12.78% to 360,600 tons, and exports increased by 11.44% to 1.4843 million tons. The USDA Annual Outlook Forum predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, and the soybean production would reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total demand was expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels. The USDA January report predicted that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 428.18 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from the previous month's forecast. In January 2026, the Canadian rapeseed crushing volume was 1,053,420 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17% and a year - on - year increase of 4.24%. Since March 1, 2026, a 5.9% anti - dumping duty has been imposed on imported rapeseed from Canada for 5 years [7][8][9][10][11] 3.3 Future Outlook - Palm oil: It is at the end of the traditional seasonal production - reduction cycle and will enter the production - recovery cycle after March. The current inventory in the producing areas is relatively high. The domestic palm oil inventory has started the seasonal accumulation cycle, and the terminal catering demand recovery is slow. However, if the crude oil price continues to rise, it will significantly increase the palm oil biodiesel blending profit and support the price [12][89] - Soybean oil: The US EPA has released a positive signal for the 2026 biofuel blending obligation. The global soybean supply pattern remains loose. The domestic soybean oil inventory will enter an accelerated accumulation cycle, but the increase in international oil prices will boost the industrial consumption demand for soybean oil and support the price in the short term [13][90] - Rapeseed oil: In February, the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in domestic coastal oil mills was at a very low level in the past four years. After the anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed is implemented, the import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to improve, and the medium - and long - term supply will be loose. The direct impact of the geopolitical conflict on rapeseed oil is weaker than that on palm oil and soybean oil, but it can gain short - term follow - up momentum [14][90][91] 3.4 Operation Strategy - Single - side trading: Temporarily wait and see to avoid short - term sharp fluctuations - Arbitrage: None - Options: None [15][92] 3.5 Internal and External Market Operation - In February 2026, the domestic vegetable oil sector showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with weak oscillations and differentiated trends among varieties. The BMD crude palm oil futures main contract showed a weak oscillating trend in February. The CBOT soybeans oscillated upward, and soybean oil led the rise unilaterally [26][30][36] 3.6 Fundamental Dynamics - Similar to the macroeconomic dynamics part, including palm oil production in Malaysia, US soybean planting and production forecasts, global soybean supply and demand data, Canadian rapeseed crushing data, and China's anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed [37][38][39][40] 3.7 Domestic Oil Basis Changes - In February, the spot basis of 24 - degree palm oil in China showed a trend of rising before the Spring Festival and falling after the festival. The spot basis of soybean oil in coastal mainstream markets fell from a high level and oscillated narrowly. The basis of rapeseed oil in coastal mainstream markets was firm before the Spring Festival and fell rapidly after the festival [46] 3.8 Three Major Oil Inventories - As of February 20, 2026, the total commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil was 2.2794 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 0.32%, and a year - on - year decrease of 81,100 tons, a decrease of 3.44% [51] 3.9 Supply - Demand Situation - Palm oil: In December 2025, China's palm oil imports decreased. In February 2026, the total palm oil transactions of domestic key oil mills decreased. As of February 28, there was 1 palm oil purchase ship and 1 wash - out ship [55][61][62] - Soybean oil: In February 2026, the soybean oil production of domestic oil mills decreased. In December 2025, China's soybean oil imports decreased, and exports increased. In February 2026, the total transactions of domestic key oil mills' bulk soybean oil decreased [66][70][71][75] - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills in February 2026 increased from zero. The rapeseed crushing volume increased, and the rapeseed oil pick - up volume increased [79][84][88]