碳酸锂数据日报-20260302

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the un - resumed production of underground mines and Zimbabwe's ban on ore exports, the supply side of lithium carbonate has become marginally tighter. The increase in the battery export VAT refund rate on April 1st will lead to a battery rush for exports, driving up downstream purchasing demand. The report maintains the view that the lithium carbonate futures price will be on the strong side due to the intensified supply - demand mismatch in the first quarter [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 172,000 yuan with a decrease of 1,000 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 168,500 yuan with a decrease of 1,000 yuan [1] - The closing prices and price changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts: lithium carbonate 2603 is 171,900 yuan with a - 2.23% change; lithium carbonate 2604 is 175,700 yuan with a - 1.69% change; lithium carbonate 2605 is 176,040 yuan with a - 0.61% change; lithium carbonate 2606 is 175,920 yuan with a - 1% change; lithium carbonate 2607 is 176,600 yuan with a - 0.62% change [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 2,372 yuan with a decrease of 15 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 3,725 yuan with a decrease of 75 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 5,600 yuan with a decrease of 100 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) has an average price of 14,075 yuan with a decrease of 475 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) has an average price of 15,350 yuan with a decrease of 450 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 58,870 yuan with a decrease of 245 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 212,000 yuan with a decrease of 500 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 187,800 yuan with a decrease of 400 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 189,450 yuan with a decrease of 300 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract production is - 4,040 yuan with a decrease of 3,380 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 3,800 yuan with a decrease of 1,340 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 4,140 yuan with a decrease of 1,120 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 100,093 tons with a decrease of 2,839 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 18,382 tons with an increase of 1,462 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,021 tons with a decrease of 4,471 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 41,690 tons with an increase of 170 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 38,461 tons with an increase of 10 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 168,303 yuan, and the profit is 1,457 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 164,301 yuan, and the profit is 1,790 yuan [3] New Energy Vehicle Market - In January 2026, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.041 million and 945,000 respectively, with year - on - year increases. The export of new energy vehicles was 302,000, with a year - on - year doubling [3]