光伏行业“反内卷”政策研究：政策合力下的产业格局重塑与价值重估

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [5] Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing an "involution" dilemma, primarily due to supply-demand mismatches and intensified homogenized competition. This situation stems from the significant capacity built from prior capital investments, which is now misaligned with the stable growth phase of global energy transition demands [3][10] - The "anti-involution" policy framework is a coordinated effort involving multiple tools, aiming to reshape the industry by establishing rules, setting boundaries, and adjusting incentives. This policy is expected to not only stabilize prices but also transform the competitive landscape of the photovoltaic sector [3][4][26] - The "anti-involution" movement signifies a pivotal transition for the Chinese photovoltaic industry, moving from a phase of rapid growth to one of maturity, with a focus on value reconstruction rather than price wars [4][46] Summary by Sections 1. Reasons for "Anti-Involution" - The current "involution" crisis in the photovoltaic industry is fundamentally a result of supply-demand mismatches and intensified homogenized competition, exacerbated by excessive capacity and stagnant demand growth [9][10] 2. Construction of the "Anti-Involution" Policy System - The central government has established a governance framework combining legal regulation, administrative oversight, and industry self-discipline to address the "involution" issue [15][21] - Key policies include setting market-based competition rules and promoting quality standards to guide the industry towards healthier competition [16][20] 3. Impact of "Anti-Involution" - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies is expected to rebalance supply and demand, leading to a price recovery process. For instance, the price of polysilicon has rebounded from a low of 35,400 CNY/ton to 53,600 CNY/ton [29][39] - The industry is witnessing a significant differentiation among companies, with those possessing price elasticity and new technologies likely to benefit first from these changes [38][40] 4. Future Outlook - The year 2026 is designated as a critical year for governance in the photovoltaic industry, focusing on eliminating "involution" and enhancing quality standards [47] - The industry is expected to transition from a focus on quantity to one emphasizing quality and technological innovation, with a shift towards a more sustainable and value-driven competitive landscape [49][50] 5. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on segments with marginal improvements and leading companies, particularly in the polysilicon sector, which is expected to benefit from price recovery [52] - Emphasis should also be placed on companies with core technological capabilities that can drive innovation and valuation restructuring [52]