3月螺纹钢或将延续低位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★ [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the 2605 contract of rebar declined by 2.54%. In mid-February, the key steel enterprises produced 20.29 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.029 million tons, a 4.3% increase from the previous period. Their steel inventory reached 18.12 million tons, a 19.9% increase from the previous decade, and a 28.2% increase from the beginning of the year. In January 2026, the global crude steel output of 69 countries/regions was 1.473 billion tons, a 6.5% year-on-year decrease, with China's output at 75.27 million tons, a 13.9% year-on-year decrease. In February 2026, the PMI of the Hebei steel industry was 48.8%, a 4.1 percentage point decrease from the previous month, falling below the boom-bust line. After the Lantern Festival, the output of rebar will rise. In March, steel prices are expected to fluctuate due to multiple factors such as the escalation of the US-Iran situation, optimistic policy expectations of domestic important meetings, cost support, and post-Lantern Festival demand tests. The recommended strategies for single-side trading, arbitrage, and options are all to wait and see [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - Futures Price: The daily K-line chart of the main rebar futures contract is presented, but no specific price analysis is provided [7]. - Spot Price: As of February 28, 2026, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,120 yuan/ton, also unchanged [14]. - Basis and Spread: The rebar basis (active contract) is mentioned, but no specific analysis is provided [16]. Important Market Information - As of February 25, the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 8.9%, a 1.5 percentage point increase year-on-year; the labor attendance rate was 15.5%, a 3.7 percentage point increase year-on-year; and the fund availability rate was 29%, a 9.4 percentage point increase year-on-year. The resumption rate of real estate projects was 8.2%, and that of non-real estate projects was 9.2% [19]. Supply - Side Situation - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the rebar output are mentioned, but no specific analysis is provided [20][24][25]. Demand - Side Situation - As of January 2026, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 48.8, a 4% decrease from the previous period; the current value of the steel circulation industry's purchasing managers' index was 47.1, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period. Information on commercial housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion floor areas, and Shanghai's terminal wire and screw procurement volume is also presented, but no specific analysis is provided [31]. Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.22%, a 0.09 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 1.93 percentage point increase year-on-year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.45%, a 1.05 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 1.87 percentage point increase year-on-year; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a 1.30 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 10.39 percentage point decrease year-on-year; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3328 million tons, a 27,900 - ton increase from the previous week and a 53,400 - ton increase year-on-year [38][39]. 后市展望 - After the Lantern Festival, independent electric arc furnace steel mills will resume production, and rebar output will increase. In March, steel prices are expected to fluctuate due to multiple factors [40]. Operation Strategy - Single - side trading: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [41].