2.28美伊冲击升级对主要大宗商品的影响

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical event on February 28, where the US and Israel launched a large - scale military strike on Iran and Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed, will have a significant impact on energy and chemical commodities, and a pulse - like impact on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The evolution of the US - Iran conflict needs to be closely monitored [1][3]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: The US - Iran conflict has raised market risk - aversion, providing a pulse - like support for precious metal prices. The market expects the conflict to be controlled, and the precious metal price may open higher and then fluctuate on Monday. If the geopolitical situation gets out of control, the gold price may break the previous high; otherwise, it will remain in a high - level shock. In the long - term, the long - bull trend of precious metals is solid [3]. - Silver: Geopolitical factors have less impact on silver than on gold. The silver price is highly volatile, and there is a possibility of a further increase under the boost of risk - aversion. However, it is unlikely to reach a new high in the short term. Attention should be paid to the risk of a short squeeze in COMEX March silver, and the silver price is expected to remain highly volatile [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: As of 2025, Iran's refined copper production capacity is 320,000 tons, accounting for 1.7% of the global total. Iran has large copper ore reserves. If the conflict leads to a change in the Iranian regime or full US takeover, it may intensify the game for strategic resources among major economies and push up the copper price [5]. - Aluminum: Iran's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 800,000 tons/year, with an actual operation of about 600,000 tons. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the aluminum plants in six Middle - Eastern countries may cut production, and the aluminum price may rise strongly on Monday. In the medium - term, the price trend depends on the evolution of the conflict [6][7]. - Zinc: In 2025, Iran's zinc ore production accounted for less than 2% of the global total. Although the import volume from Iran is small, the continued escalation of the US - Iran conflict will strengthen the expectation of a tight zinc ore supply. The short - term zinc price is mainly affected by geopolitical events and may open higher [8]. - Lead: Iran's lead resources account for a relatively low proportion globally. The US - Iran conflict may drive lead prices to open slightly higher in the short term. If the situation does not escalate, the price will return to the fundamentals and fluctuate within a range [9]. - Tin: Iran's tin resources are limited, but the conflict may indirectly affect the transportation and supply chain of major tin - producing countries. Short - term risk - aversion, supply risk expectations, and capital flows will push up the tin price, but there is a risk of price correction [10]. Energy and Chemicals - Methanol: After the US - Iran conflict, the spot price of coastal methanol increased. Iran accounts for a large proportion of the Middle - East's methanol production capacity and China's methanol imports. If the conflict expands, there may be a supply interruption. The domestic methanol main contract is expected to open higher on Monday [11][12]. - Palm Oil: The geopolitical conflict may boost the oil price and the palm oil market. However, considering the fundamentals of the palm oil market, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. Black Commodities - The impact of the US attack on Iran on black futures is relatively limited. The price of black commodities is mainly affected by domestic supply - demand, policies, and terminal demand. The black futures are expected to stabilize in the short term [14].