地方债周度跟踪：下周发行环比小幅上升至2725亿元-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period decreased compared to the previous period, and it is expected that the issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the next period will increase compared to the current period [2]. - The issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds this year is faster than that in the same period of 2024 and 2025 [3]. - As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 26.3% and 18.7% of the annual quota respectively (calculated based on the 2025 quota), and considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 26.9% and 20.5% [3]. - The scale of local government bonds planned to be issued in March 2026 is 934.7 billion yuan, including 306.7 billion yuan of new special bonds [3]. - The current 10 - year and above local government bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds decreased, and the weighted issuance term was lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds in this period (February 23 - March 1, 2026) was 256.42 billion yuan (2026.2.9 - 2026.2.15 was 322.136 billion yuan), and the expected issuance in the next period (March 2 - March 8, 2026) is 272.484 billion yuan [2][10]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period was 21.76 years, significantly longer than the previous period's 15.48 years [12]. - The issuance spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds compared to the same - term national bonds decreased to 12.09BP and increased to 23.46BP respectively, and the full - field multiples decreased compared to the previous period [13][14]. 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and national bonds widened for 10 - year and narrowed slightly for 30 - year, and the weekly turnover rate decreased significantly - As of February 27, 2026, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and national bonds were 22.47BP and 20.74BP respectively, widening by 3.46BP and narrowing by 0.66BP compared to February 14, 2026, and were at the 69.40% and 79.30% historical quantiles since 2023 [3][35][36]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in this period was 0.42%, a significant decrease compared to the previous period's 1.08% [42]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Liaoning, Shandong, and Jilin were better than the national average [3].